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Why U.S. Economic Growth Has Disappointed This Year

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In this Friday, Feb. 6, 2015 file photo, a shopper pays for produce at a Farmers Market in downtown Los Angeles. Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)

In this Friday, Feb. 6, 2015 file photo, a shopper pays for produce at a Farmers Market in downtown Los Angeles. Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)

Christopher S. Rugaber, ASSOCIATED PRESS

 
WASHINGTON (AP) — Like an underachieving student, the U.S. economy isn’t living up to the high hopes it began the year with.

Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. Meanwhile, drilling companies reeling from cheaper oil have slashed spending much more rapidly than anyone expected.

A host of other, mostly temporary, factors have also weighed on growth. Harsh winter weather kept shoppers at home, and a labor dispute at West Coast ports slowed exports.

Yet hope is still alive for the second half of the year amid signs that the economy could regain lost momentum.

Employers are holding onto their existing workers, keeping layoffs at rock bottom, and adding staff — evidence that their outlook remains positive.

In a report Thursday, the government said applications for unemployment benefits are at the lowest level in 15 years, which means layoffs are low and job security is very high. Employers added 223,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent.

“Companies are implicitly telling us that they believe this is temporary,” says Joseph LaVorgna, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “They’re looking through the weakness from the ports and the weather.”

Indeed, the first half of the year is shaping up to be surprisingly lackluster.

Analysts estimate the economy may expand at an annual rate of just 2 percent in the April-June quarter after barely discernable growth of 0.2 percent in the January-March quarter. Some economists say the government’s next revision will likely send the figure into negative territory, possibly as low as minus 1 percent.

That would put growth in the first half of 2015 at a “pretty disappointing” 0.5 percent, says Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. That’s a far cry from the 3 percent pace for all of 2015 that most economists expected late last year. Growth hasn’t reached that level since 2005.

The biggest reason behind the disappointment is consumers, who were widely expected to return to their free-spending ways.

Gas prices are still about $1 a gallon cheaper nationwide than a year ago, despite some recent increases. Steady hiring in the past year means 3 million more people are earning paychecks compared with a year ago. And consumer confidence has also risen in recent months.

Yet in the first three months of the year, Americans increased their spending by just 1.9 percent, the weakest gain in a year. A report on restaurant and retail sales Wednesday showed that spending was flat in April, crushing hopes for a stronger rebound.

“The disappearance of consumer spending in early 2015 has now become even more mysterious, as some of the excuses shopped around earlier, like bad weather, are looking more stretched with the passage of time,” Feroli says.

Most economists have concluded that Americans, at least so far, are reluctant to spend their savings from cheaper gas because they believe the drop in prices will be temporary. Meanwhile, spending by oil and gas companies on drilling rigs, steel pipes and other equipment plummeted nearly 50 percent in the first quarter, a much steeper drop than economists forecast.

“We expected (cheaper gas) to have a positive impact,” Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, said. “It hasn’t.”

So are things turning around? Short answer: probably.

Many trends currently weighing on growth should fade. International trade will be less of a drag in the second half of the year, economists say. The dollar’s rise against other major currencies, such as the euro, has leveled off. A strong dollar has made exports more expensive, hurting sales in overseas markets.

A surge of imports in March, which widened the trade gap and cut growth, was probably a one-time event triggered by the resolution of the West Coast port dispute.

Consumer spending should rebound from the first quarter’s unusually low level. And spending by energy companies will likely stop falling by the third quarter, LaVorgna said. He expects growth will reach a 3 percent annual rate in the second half.

Home construction is also poised to lift growth. Harsh weather postponed many projects in January and February, but homebuilding rose 2 percent in March from the previous month.

Steady job gains will also help, giving more Americans paychecks that they will ideally spend.

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Contact Chris Rugaber on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/ChrisRugaber
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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Activism

Books for Ghana

We effectively facilitated cross-continent community building! We met the call and provided 400 books for ASC’s students at the call of the Minister of Education. We supported the work of a new African writer whose breakout novel is an action-packed depiction of a young woman steeped in Ghanaian culture who travels to the USA for college, all the while experiencing the twists, turns, and uncertainties that life brings.

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Min. Rauna Thurston, Chief Mpuntuhene Afua Ewusiwa I
Min. Rauna Thurston, Chief Mpuntuhene Afua Ewusiwa I

By Min. Rauna Thurston, Chief Mpuntuhene Afua Ewusiwa I

My travels to Afrika began in June 2022, on a tour led by Prof. Manu Ampim, Director of the organization Advancing The Research. I was scheduled to become an ordained Minister by Wo’se Community of the Sacred African Way. It was vital that my feet touch the soil of Kemet and my spirit connect with the continent’s people before ordination.

Since 2022, I’ve made six trips to Afrika. During my travels, I became a benefactor to Abeadze State College (ASC) in Abeadze Dominase, Ghana, originally founded by Daasebre Kwebu Ewusi VII, Paramount Chief of Abeadze Traditional Area and now run by the government. The students there were having trouble with English courses, which are mandatory. The Ghanaian Minister of Education endorsed a novel written by 18-year-old female Ghanaian first-time writer, Nhyira Esaaba Essel, titled Black Queen Sceptre. The idea was that if the students had something more interesting to read, it would evoke a passion for reading; this seemed reasonable to me. Offer students something exciting and imaginative, combined with instructors committed to their success and this could work.

The challenge is how to acquire 800 books?!

I was finishing another project for ASC, so my cash was thin and I was devoid of time to apply for annual grants. I sat on my porch in West Oakland, as I often do, when I’m feeling for and connecting to my ancestors. On quiet nights, I reminisce about the neighborhood I grew up in. Across the street from my house was the house that my Godfather, Baba Dr. Wade Nobles and family lived in, which later became The Institute for the Advanced Study of Black Family Life & Culture (IASBFLC). Then, it came to me…ancestors invited me to reach out to The Association of Black Psychologists – Bay Area Chapter (ABPsi-Bay Area)! It was a long shot but worth it!

I was granted an audience with the local ABPsi Board, who ultimately approved funding for the book project with a stipulation that the Board read the book and a request to subsequently offer input as to how the book would be implemented at ASC. In this moment, my memory jet set to my first ABPsi convention around 2002, while working for IASBFLC. Returning to the present, I thought, “They like to think because it feels good, and then, they talk about what to do about what they think about.” I’m doomed.

However, I came to understand why reading the book and offering suggestions for implementation were essential. In short: ABPsi is an organization that operates from the aspirational principles of Ma’at with aims of liberating the Afrikan Mind, empowering the Afrikan character, and enlivening: illuminating the Afrikan spirit. Their request resulted in a rollout of 400 books in a pair-share system. Students checked out books in pairs, thereby reducing our bottom line to half of the original cost because we purchased 50% fewer units. This nuance promoted an environment of Ujima (collective work & responsibility) and traditional Afrikan principles of cooperation and interdependence. The student’s collaborative approach encouraged shared responsibility, not only for the physical book but for each other’s success. This concept was Dr. Lawford Goddard’s, approved by the Board, with Dr. Patricia “Karabo” Nunley at the helm.

We effectively facilitated cross-continent community building! We met the call and provided 400 books for ASC’s students at the call of the Minister of Education. We supported the work of a new African writer whose breakout novel is an action-packed depiction of a young woman steeped in Ghanaian culture who travels to the USA for college, all the while experiencing the twists, turns, and uncertainties that life brings. (A collectible novel for all ages). A proposed future phase of this collaborative project is for ASC students to exchange reflective essays on Black Queen Sceptre with ABPsi Bay Area members.

We got into good trouble. To order Black Queen Sceptre, email esselewurama14@gmail.com.

I became an ordained Minister upon returning from my initial pilgrimage to Afrika. Who would have imagined that my travels to Afrika would culminate in me becoming a citizen of Sierra Leone and recently being named a Chief Mpuntuhene under Daasebre Kwebu Ewusi VII, Paramount Chief of Abeadze Traditional Area in Ghana, where I envision continued collaborations.

Min. Rauna/Chief Mpuntuhene is a member of ABPsi Bay Area, a healing resource committed to providing the Post Newspaper readership with monthly discussions about critical issues in Black Mental Health, Wealth & Wellness. Readers are welcome to join us at our monthly chapter meetings every 3rd Saturday via Zoom and contact us at bayareaabpsi@gmail.com.

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Black History

Alice Parker: The Innovator Behind the Modern Gas Furnace

Born in Morristown, New Jersey, in 1895, Alice Parker lived during a time when women, especially African American women, faced significant social and systemic barriers. Despite these challenges, her contributions to home heating technology have had a lasting impact.

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In 1919, Alice Parker patented the design for a gas-powered central heating system, a groundbreaking invention. Image courtesy of U.S. Patent Office.
In 1919, Alice Parker patented the design for a gas-powered central heating system, a groundbreaking invention. Image courtesy of U.S. Patent Office.

By Tamara Shiloh

Alice Parker was a trailblazing African American inventor whose innovative ideas forever changed how we heat our homes.

Born in Morristown, New Jersey, in 1895, Parker lived during a time when women, especially African American women, faced significant social and systemic barriers. Despite these challenges, her contributions to home heating technology have had a lasting impact.

Parker grew up in New Jersey, where winters could be brutally cold. Although little is documented about her personal life, her education played a crucial role in shaping her inventive spirit. She attended Howard University, a historically Black university in Washington, D.C., where she may have developed her interest in practical solutions to everyday challenges.

Before Parker’s invention, most homes were heated using wood or coal-burning stoves. These methods were labor-intensive, inefficient, and posed fire hazards. Furthermore, they failed to provide even heating throughout a home, leaving many rooms cold while others were uncomfortably warm.

Parker recognized the inefficiency of these heating methods and imagined a solution that would make homes more comfortable and energy-efficient during winter.

In 1919, she patented her design for a gas-powered central heating system, a groundbreaking invention. Her design used natural gas as a fuel source to distribute heat throughout a building, replacing the need for wood or coal. The system allowed for thermostatic control, enabling homeowners to regulate the temperature in their homes efficiently.

What made her invention particularly innovative was its use of ductwork, which channeled warm air to different parts of the house. This concept is a precursor to the modern central heating systems we use today.

While Parker’s design was never fully developed or mass-produced during her lifetime, her idea laid the groundwork for modern central heating systems. Her invention was ahead of its time and highlighted the potential of natural gas as a cleaner, more efficient alternative to traditional heating methods.

Parker’s patent is remarkable not only for its technical innovation but also because it was granted at a time when African Americans and women faced severe limitations in accessing patent protections and recognition for their work. Her success as an inventor during this period is a testament to her ingenuity and determination.

Parker’s legacy lives on in numerous awards and grants – most noticeably in the annual Alice H. Parker Women Leaders in Innovation Award. That distinction is given out by the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce to celebrate outstanding women innovators in Parker’s home state.

The details of Parker’s later years are as sketchy as the ones about her early life. The specific date of her death, along with the cause, are also largely unknown.

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Activism

2024 in Review: Seven Questions for Frontline Doulas

California Black Media (CBM) spoke with Frontline Doulas’ co-founder Khefri Riley. She reflected on Frontline’s accomplishments this year and the organization’s goals moving forward. 

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Khefri Riley, co-founder of Frontline Doulas. Facebook photo.

By Edward Henderson, California Black Media

Frontline Doulas provides African American families non-medical professional perinatal services at no cost.

This includes physical, emotional, informational, psychosocial and advocacy support during the pregnancy, childbirth and postpartum period. Women of all ages — with all forms of insurance — are accepted and encouraged to apply for services.

California Black Media (CBM) spoke with co-founder Khefri Riley. She reflected on Frontline’s accomplishments this year and the organization’s goals moving forward.

Responses have been edited for clarity and length.

Looking back at 2024, what stands out to you as your most important achievement and why? 

In 2024, we are humbled to have been awarded the contract for the Los Angeles County Medical Doula Hub, which means that we are charged with creating a hub of connectivity and support for generating training and helping to create the new doula workforce for the medical doula benefit that went live in California on Jan. 1, 2023.

How did your leadership and investments contribute to improving the lives of Black Californians? 

We believe that the revolution begins in the womb. What we mean by that is we have the potential and the ability to create intentional generational healing from the moment before a child was conceived, when a child was conceived, during this gestational time, and when a child is born.

And there’s a traditional saying in Indigenous communities that what we do now affects future generations going forward. So, the work that we do with birthing families, in particular Black birthing families, is to create powerful and healthy outcomes for the new generation so that we don’t have to replicate pain, fear, discrimination, or racism.

What frustrated you the most over the last year?

Working in reproductive justice often creates a heavy burden on the organization and the caregivers who deliver the services most needed to the communities. So, oftentimes, we’re advocating for those whose voices are silenced and erased, and you really have to be a warrior to stand strong and firm.

What inspired you the most over the last year?

My great-grandmother. My father was his grandmother’s midwife assistant when he was a young boy. I grew up with their medicine stories — the ways that they healed the community and were present to the community, even amidst Jim Crow.

What is one lesson you learned in 2024 that will inform your decision-making next year?

I find that you have to reach for your highest vision, and you have to stand firm in your value. You have to raise your voice, speak up and demand, and know your intrinsic value.

In a word, what is the biggest challenge Black Californians face?

Amplification. We cannot allow our voices to be silent.

What is the goal you want to achieve most in 2025?

I really would like to see a reduction in infant mortality and maternal mortality within our communities and witness this new birth worker force be supported and integrated into systems. So, that way, we fulfill our goal of healthy, unlimited birth in the Black community and indeed in all birthing communities in Los Angeles and California.

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