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COMMENTARY: Is America’s Ethnic Vote a Blue Wave Rising or Falling?

One might chalk up the ethnic vote slide to turnout. But considering motivating factors like the economy, abortion, or even the fate of democracy, I think despite good turnout, some may be tired of divided government and willing to test new ideas that might work for them.

Published

2 years ago

November 20, 2022

Oakland Post

Emil Guillermo is a journalist and commentator. His web show is on www.amok.com

Emil Guillermo is a journalist and commentator. He does a webshow on www.amok.com

By Emil Guillermo

A week ago, there was no Red Wave. Was there a Blue one?

If you look at other exit polls, not as much as there could have been.

BIPOC voters were seen and heard on election night. And their unity was the key.

But from the numbers, it appears the coalition is beginning to fray a bit.

Overall, whites were 72% of the voters on November 8, according to the Associated Press Vote Cast exit polling. And they voted Red (Republican) 59% to 39% Blue (Democratic).

Those among that 39% are allies to traditional BIPOC voters. And we’d better hope that number grows.

Comprising less than 25% of voters on November 8, BIPOC voters could still use all the help they can get. While they provided surprisingly good midterm election results for Democrats, it should have been even better.

It wasn’t.

The reason? Blues are becoming ever slightly less blue.

Sure, on election night BIPOC voters were predominantly Democratic, and thanks to that, we did we see an unexpected “mini-Blue Wave.”

Blacks made up 11% of the voters and went 83% Blue, with just 14% Red.

That’s high, but it was still lower by up to seven percentage points compared to the 2018 midterms, according to network exit polling and the AP VoteCast poll, as reported by the Washington Post.

Hispanic/Latino voters were 11% of the electorate on November 8 and were 56% Blue to 40% Red.

Again, that’s a decrease of about 9 to 10 percentage points from the 2018 midterms.

Asian Americans were just 2% of the November 8 voters and were 64% Blue to 34% Red.

That’s in keeping with what the AALDEF exit poll found in its 15-state multilingual exit poll that targeted Asian American/Pacific Islander.

But in the 2018 midterms, Asian American Blue support was around 71%.

Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders were less than .5% of the voters and were 58% Blue to 38% Red. That’s lower than the AA part of the Asian Ameican Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander.

I was also surprised that American Indian voters, just 1% of the voters on November 8, were 37% Blue to 57% Red.

So, are American Indian voters already where the rest of the BIPOC voters are heading? One might chalk up the ethnic vote slide to turnout. But considering motivating factors like the economy, abortion, or even the fate of democracy, I think despite good turnout, some may be tired of divided government and willing to test new ideas that might work for them.

Could that new idea possibly be Donald Trump?

TRUMPY REDUX?

Trump, who was set to announce his candidacy for a third run for president this week, is doing so into a headwind. His election deniers have lost. For governor, for Congress, for state level election chiefs. He is no longer seen as a winner. He is a bona fide loser among losers. Even the exit polling on favorability for Trump is disastrous.

How can he possibly win? By acknowledging how America’s demographics have changed and begin courting the ethnic vote.

I don’t mean the Herschel Walkers, whom Dave Chappelle on SNL called “observably stupid.”

I mean regular folks who see themselves as independent swing voters.

I say this not in jest, though I wish I were.

Courting the ethnic vote was one of the things the GOP seemed committed to in 2016, but then Trump came in and the GOP embraced the Trump base.

That would be the irony if outreach to ethnic voters might be the one thing that could help the future of the GOP and Trump–by taking advantage of what looks to be a diminishing Blue lock on ethnic voters.

Of course, it might also lose them to the rabid and racist Trump base, the mostly white Jan. 6 folks, who saw in Trump the one person who would represent their xenophobic tendencies in a white world that is shrinking.

That might actually be a good thing to see them shamed back under a rock.

It boils down to which group could make the GOP and Trump winners again.

If you don’t want to see that, work to keep the BIPOC coalition stronger than ever in the fight for civil rights, voting rights, immigration rights, LGBTQ rights, abortion rights.

The ethnic vote may not be bluer than blue, but it’s still majority blue.

And that’s all you need in a democracy.

Emil Guillermo is a journalist and commentator. He does a show on www.amok.com

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Oakland Post: Week of December 18 – 24, 2024

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of December 18 – 24, 2024

Published

1 day ago

December 20, 2024

Oakland Post

To enlarge your view of this issue, use the slider, magnifying glass icon or full page icon in the lower right corner of the browser window.

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‘Donald Trump Is Not a God:’ Rep. Bennie Thompson Blasts Trump’s Call to Jail Him

“Donald Trump is not a god,” U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., told The Grio during a recent interview, reacting to Trump’s unsupported claims that the congressman, along with other committee members like vice chair and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, destroyed evidence throughout the investigation.

Published

4 days ago

December 18, 2024

Oakland Post

Congressman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss. Courtesy photo.

By Post Staff

U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., said he not intimidated by President-elect Donald Trump, who, during an interview on “Meet the Press,” called for the congressman to be jailed for his role as chairman of the special congressional committee investigating Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, mob attack on the U.S. Capitol.

“Donald Trump is not a god,” Thompson told The Grio during a recent interview, reacting to Trump’s unsupported claims that the congressman, along with other committee members like vice chair and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, destroyed evidence throughout the investigation.

“He can’t prove it, nor has there been any other proof offered, which tells me that he really doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” said the 76-year-old lawmaker, who maintained that he and the bipartisan Jan. 6 Select Committee – which referred Trump for criminal prosecution – were exercising their constitutional and legislative duties.

“When someone disagrees with you, that doesn’t make it illegal; that doesn’t even make it wrong,” Thompson said, “The greatness of this country is that everyone can have their own opinion about any subject, and so for an incoming president who disagrees with the work of Congress to say ‘because I disagree, I want them jailed,’ is absolutely unbelievable.”

When asked by The Grio if he is concerned about his physical safety amid continued public ridicule from Trump, whose supporters have already proven to be violent, Thompson said, “I think every member of Congress here has to have some degree of concern, because you just never know.”

This story is based on a report from The Grio.

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City of Oakland Celebrates Reopening of Main Library

“Libraries are such critical facilities for all Oaklanders, whether it’s children coming to story-time, adults reading the newspapers or borrowing the latest novels, and people engaging with a range of services and programs that the library hosts,” said Council President and District 2 Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas. “Such library services and programs are only possible when the facility’s electricity, heating, roof, and lighting are fixed and running efficiently. I’m proud to join this re-opening of our Main Public Library.”

Published

4 days ago

December 18, 2024

Oakland Post

Left to Right- Jamie Turbak, Director of Library Services, LaTonda Simmons, Assistant City Administrator, Nikki Bas, President Oakland City Council, Shen Thao, Mayor of Oakland, Carroll Fife, Oakland City Councilmember District 3, Harold Duffey, Assistant City Administrator, Sean Maher, Projects Coordinator. Photo by Kevin Hicks.

The branch had been closed since May for critical infrastructure upgrades

Special to the Post

The City of Oakland leadership and community partners gathered to celebrate the reopening of the Main Library after completion of critical infrastructure upgrades to enhance the library’s facilities and provide a better experience for patrons.

Renovations include new roof installation, skylight repair, critical electrical system upgrades, new boiler control system installation, auditorium heating and cooling system installation, and improvements to lighting, flooring and ceilings throughout the building.

“This is truly something to celebrate, the reopening of our wonderful Main Library! I congratulate the staff and our partners for this important project to make the Main Library a more comfortable place for everyone for years to come, said Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao. “Thank you to Oakland voters and the California State Library for making these crucial improvements possible.”

“Public libraries are a wonderful resource for our residents, offering a safe space for learning and being,” said District 3 Councilmember Carroll Fife. “It is critical to improve and modernize our libraries so more members of our community can utilize and enjoy them. I’m excited that the necessary renovations to the Main Library have been completed successfully and thank everyone involved, particularly the City team, who helped secured the necessary grant funds for this work.”

“I am proud of the City staff and project partners who kept this important project on schedule and under budget,” said Assistant City Administrator G. Harold Duffey. “The library is an incredibly important resource for our community members, and this project is an investment into the library’s future.”

“December 2nd was a momentous occasion for Oakland Public Library as we proudly reopened the doors of the Main Library following extensive infrastructure repairs,” said Director of Library Services Jamie Turbak. “Closing the Main Library for six months was no easy decision, as it serves as the central hub for our library system and is truly the heart of Oakland. Yet, this renovation was essential, representing more than just physical upgrades—it reflects our ongoing commitment to creating a safe, welcoming space for everyone.”

The City Administrator Jestin Johnson also attended the press conference and signalled his support for the completion of the record-setting completion of the renovations. Gay Plair Cobb, a newly appointed Library Commissioner said the Library represents the soul and brains of our community.

The Oakland Public Library secured funding for these crititcal repairs through a variety of sources. The California State Library’s Building Forward Library Facilities Improvement Program awarded the Main Branch $4.2 million. To comply with the grant terms, the City of Oakland provided matching funds through Measures KK, as approved by the Oakland City Council in October 2023.

The Main Library will host an Open House to celebrate the reopening on February 22, 2025, 10 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.

About the Oakland Public Library

The Oakland Public Library is a part of the City of Oakland in California and has been in existence since 1878. Locations include 16 neighborhood branches, a Main Library, a Second Start Adult Literacy Program, the Oakland Tool Lending Library, and the African American Museum and Library at Oakland (AAMLO). The Oakland Public Library empowers all people to explore, connect, and grow. Oaklandlibrary.org