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Expect The Worst? Political Scientists Have a Pessimism Bias, Study Finds

The research, co-authored by UC Berkeley political scientist Andrew T. Little, offers a possible solution: an approach that aggregates experts’ predictions, finds the middle ground, and then reduces the influence of pessimism, leading to the possibility of “remarkably accurate predictions.”

Published

1 day ago

January 6, 2025

Oakland Post

Fears of unknown political outcomes. iStock image.

Political experts surveyed recently were prone to pessimism — and were often wrong, says a study co-authored at UC Berkeley. Still, when their predictions were averaged out, they were ‘remarkably accurate’

By Edward Lempinen, UC Berkeley News

The past decade has seen historic challenges for U.S. democracy and an intense focus by scholars on events that seem to signal democratic decline. But new research released two weeks ago finds that a bias toward pessimism among U.S. political scientists often leads to inaccurate predictions about the future threats to democracy.

The study was released by Bright Line Watch, a consortium of political scientists who focus on issues related to the health of U.S. democracy. It offers provocative insight into political scientists’ predictions for the months ahead, including some that would be seen as alarming risks for democracy.

According to an analysis that Little distilled from a Bright Line Watch survey done after the November election, political scientists generally agreed that incoming Republican President Donald Trump is highly likely to pardon MAGA forces imprisoned for roles in the Jan. 6, 2021 uprising that sought to block the peaceful transfer of power from Trump to Democrat Joe Biden.

The research concluded that it’s less likely, but still probable, that Trump will pardon himself from a series of federal criminal convictions and investigations, and that his allies will open an investigation of Biden.

In understanding the future course of U.S. politics, Little said in an interview, it’s important to listen to the consensus of expert political scientists rather than to individual experts who, sometimes, become media figures based on their dire predictions.

“If we’re worried about being excessively pessimistic,” he explained, “and if we don’t want to conclude that every possible bad thing is going to happen, then we should make sure that we’re mainly worrying about things where there is wider consensus (among political scientists).”

Believe the Consensus, Doubt the Outliers

For example, the raw data from hundreds of survey responses studied by Little and Bright Line researchers showed that more than half of the political scientists also expected Trump to form a board that would explore the removal of generals; deport millions of immigrants; and initiate a mass firing of civil service government employees.

But once the researchers aggregated the scholars’ opinions, determined the average of their expectations and controlled for their pessimism bias, the consensus was that the likelihood of those developments falls well below 50%.

Bright Line Watch, founded in 2016, is based at the Chicago Center on Democracy and is collaboratively run by political scientists at the University of Chicago, Dartmouth College, the University of Michigan and the University of Rochester in New York.

The research collaboration between Little and the Bright Line Watch scholars sprang from a collegial disagreement that emerged last January in the pages of the journal Political Science and Politics.

Little and Anne Meng, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, authored a research paper in that issue positing that there is little empirical, data-based evidence of global democratic decline in the past decade.

At the request of the journal editors, scholars at Bright Line Watch submitted a study to counter the argument made by Meng and Little.

But in subsequent weeks, the two teams came together and, in the study released on Dec. 17, found agreement that raw opinion on the state of democracy skews toward pessimism among the political scientists who have participated in the surveys run by Bright Line Watch.

A Stark Measure of Pessimism (and Error)

Surveys conducted during election seasons in 2020, 2022 and 2024 asked political scientists to provide their forecasts on dozens of scenarios that would be, without doubt, harmful for democracy.

The raw data in the new study showed a high level of inaccuracy in the forecasts: While the political scientists, on average, found a 45% likelihood of the negative events happening, fewer than 25% actually came to pass.

Before last month’s election, Bright Line Watch asked the political scientists to assess dozens of possibilities that seemed to be ripped from the headlines. Would foreign hackers cripple voting systems? Would Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, declare victory before the winner was called by the news media? Would Trump incite political violence again?

Altogether, the political scientists predicted a 44% probability for the list of negative events — but only 10% actually happened.

In the interview, Little defended the focus on possible negative developments by political scientists and others. It’s “very important” to be aware of the potential for harmful developments, he said.

But the focus on worst-case scenarios can also be distracting and destabilizing. The question, then, is why political scientists might develop a bias for pessimism.

To some extent, Little said, it may be a matter of expertise. The data show that scholars who specialize in American politics tend to be the least pessimistic — and the most accurate — forecasters. Political scientists with expertise in international relations, political theory or other areas tend to be more pessimistic and less reliable.

Little offered several other possible explanations. For example, he said, when scholars focus on one narrow area, like threats to democracy, they might see the potential threats with a heightened urgency. Their worry might shape the way they see the wider political world.

“People who study authoritarian politics are probably drawn to that because they think it’s an important problem, and they think it’s a problem that we need to address,” he explained. “If you spend a lot of your time and effort focusing on bad scenarios that might happen, you might end up thinking they’re more likely than they really are.”

And occasionally, he said, scholars may find that raising alarms about imminent dangers to democracy leads to more media invitations.

The Battle for Scholars’ Public Credibility

For the interwoven fields of political science and journalism — and for the wider health of democracy — accuracy is essential. That’s the value of the analytical system described by the authors of the new study. If researchers can find the expert consensus on complex issues and tone down unwarranted alarm, understanding should improve, and democracy should operate more efficiently.

Still, Little cautioned, it would be a mistake to discount or discard the insights offered by expert political scientists.

“You don’t want to say, ‘I’m just going to ignore the experts,’” he advised. “This research shows that that would be a very bad idea. Once you do the adjustments, the experts are very informed, and you can learn a lot from what they say.

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Who Wants to Be the Next Elected Mayor of Oakland?

The Oakland Post is issuing a CALL to all candidates to present their answers, plans, or solutions in response to our list of questions.

Published

12 hours ago

January 7, 2025

Oakland Post

An aerial view of the downtown Oakland skyline on a clear sunny day. The federal building and other iconic buildings fill the skyline. Photo: iStock.

By Paul Cobb

Many of you probably recall the oft-repeated expression when describing leadership that “many are called but few are chosen.” We will be inundated during January with many claims of qualifications by those who want to lead Oakland.

As of Jan. 1, 2025, we have heard the names of 14 potential candidates who might become Oakland’s next Mayor.

The Oakland Post is issuing a CALL to all candidates to present their answers, plans, or solutions in response to our list of questions.

Any candidate who wishes to receive a free announcement, publicity or space in the paper must submit solutions.

The first questions we propose are 1) What is your budget balancing plan?
What is your position on requiring all city employees to work full-time in their designated offices rather than remotely from their homes?
What is your plan to provide open-access opportunities to all police officers for overtime pay?
Since many businesses, especially downtown, have closed, what is your plan to attract and increase revenues?

Please send your submissions of 300 words or less to each question to Social@postnewsgroup.com or visit www.postnewsgroup.com

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Oakland NAACP President Stands on the Frontlines for Equity

With education as a cornerstone, Adams emphasized the importance of youth having access to quality kindergarten through 12th-grade education along with college or vocational programming beyond high school. “I feel that it’s so important for our children to get a good education in K-12th grade, along with the colleges of their choice, especially with the HBCU’s (Historically Black Colleges and Universities).”

Published

14 hours ago

January 7, 2025

Oakland Post

NAACP Oakland President Cynthia Adams. Photo Courtesy of Cynthia Adams.

By Carla Thomas

For Cynthia Adams, president of the Oakland chapter of the NAACP, fighting for the rights of Black people comes naturally. With southern roots in Arkansas, Adams experienced firsthand the injustice and unfairness of racism.

“Growing up in the Jim Crow South, I experienced the unfair treatment of people of color and how faith can inspire communities to bring about positive and long-lasting change,” said Adams. Adams says a combination of her family and faith has kept her strong in the face of adversity and inspired her life’s work of advocacy.

Adams chose education as a career path — and a means to achieve equity and overcome racism. She earned her bachelor’s degree at the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff and later received an advanced degree from California State East Bay.

Adams’ experience as an Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) recorder, a counselor, a researcher, and a college recruiter has allowed her to be laser-focused on youth. She also served as the chairperson for the Oakland NAACP youth.

“The mission of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People is to ensure the political, educational, social, and economic equality of rights of all persons and to eliminate race-based discrimination. We want to ensure our citizens have equal rights and opportunities without discrimination based on race.”

As a partner with the State of California’s Stop the Hate campaign, Adams says the initiative is a step in the right direction. “It’s great that our governor and state created the Stop the Hate campaign and provides resources for victims of racism and other hate crimes,” said Adams. “The racism toward Black people has increased and our children are being targeted,” she continued.

“We, at the Oakland branch, created a declaration on racism that will amplify the needs of our community to combat racism,” continued Adams. “That declaration was adopted nationally.”

Bridging communities and collaborating is also a strategy for moving society toward justice, according to Adams.

“Through the NAACP, we build connections between communities and advocate for the rights of historically marginalized and oppressed individuals,” said Adams. “Collective action is the only way to advance civil rights and promote social equity.”

By taking stands on supporting former Oakland Police Chief LeRonne Armstrong to supporting the recall of a mayor faced with a scandal that brought negative national press to the city of Oakland, Adams has always demanded more for her people, and better for Oakland, the city she calls home.

She expressed pride in the national organization’s announcement of a $200 million fund designed to empower Black funders nationwide. “We all know the health of a community begins with economics,” said Adams.

Adams says that strengthening Black businesses automatically sustains a community. “We’ve also got to educate our community on opportunities and teach our children critical thinking so that they can provide the next generation of solutions for society,” said Adams.

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‘In 2024, We Had a Decrease in Shootings and Killings,’ Says Oakland Mayor Nikki Bas and Ceasefire Leaders

“The Ceasefire Strategy is once again being properly implemented and fully executed by all its partners as a data-driven gun violence reduction strategy. It is reducing gun violence in the City of Oakland with remarkable results and tangible improvements. The leadership of Rev. Damita Davis- Howard, Ceasefire director, Dr. Joshi of the Department of Violence Prevention, and the Ceasefire Strategy partners must be commended for this incredible work in ensuring public safety,” said Pastor Michael Wallace, Oakland Public Safety and Services Oversight Commission member.

Published

14 hours ago

January 7, 2025

Oakland Post

Some faith and community leaders who attended the year-end Ceasefire press conference are (left to right): Rev. Damita Davis-Howard, Oakland Mayor Nikki Fortunato Bas, Rev. Michael Wallace, and Brooklyn Williams. Photo by Kevin Hicks.

From Oakland City News Sources

Oakland’s Ceasefire partners, including representatives from the City of Oakland Department of Violence Prevention (DVP), Faith in Action East Bay, and other community leaders held a press conference Monday to discuss year-end reductions in gun violence and share community support for the Ceasefire Strategy.

“Our communities have never wavered from our support of the Ceasefire Strategy. We knew in the beginning that Ceasefire saves the lives of Oakland’s most vulnerable,” said Alba Hernandez, Faith in Action East Bay.

According to the DVP, Oakland will finish 2024 as the safest year since the start of the COVID pandemic. As of Dec. 23, there has been a 35% decrease in murders accompanied by a 33% reduction in nonfatal shootings compared to 2023.

As Oakland’s primary violence reduction strategy, Ceasefire seeks to identify individuals at very high risk of being involved in gun violence. Those high-risk individuals who are arrestable are prioritized for law enforcement action. Others at the highest-risk are informed of their risk and offered intensive community-based services such as life coaching, workforce development, and mental health care.

Ceasefire operates through close coordination and collaboration between the Mayor’s Office, DVP, the Ceasefire director, Oakland Police Department, and the Alameda County Probation Department, with the National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform (NICJR) and California Partnership for Safe Communities (CPSC) providing training and technical assistance.

“I am extremely grateful for the successful resurrection of the Ceasefire Strategy and for the historic declines in shootings and homicides that followed in just one year. I am proud to have worked with [former] Mayor Sheng Thao to reinvest in Ceasefire, and I commend the leadership of Brooklyn Williams in the Mayor’s Office, who has assembled a committed team that is saving lives every day,” said Mayor Nikki Fortunato Bas.

Said Pastor Hopkins, Lakeshore Avenue Baptist Church, “I have been a pastor in Oakland for 36 years, and for each of those years the number of homicides has been a crisis in our community. Ceasefire is an answer to prayer because it serves to save lives by stopping the shooting and serving as a lifeline to healing,”

“The Department of Violence Prevention is grateful for the on-going support of Faith in Action East Bay and committed community leaders,” said Dr. Holly Joshi, chief of the DVP.

“Their vision to bring the Ceasefire strategy to Oakland over a decade ago, advocacy for its initial implementation, and determination to see it successfully re-rooted are commendable. With Ceasefire fully up and running, DVP life coaches and violence interrupters are in communities every day working with high-risk individuals, mediating conflicts, and preventing retaliatory violence. Through hard work, focus, and partnership, we have made significant progress this year in reducing gun violence,” said Joshi.

“The Ceasefire Strategy is once again being properly implemented and fully executed by all its partners as a data-driven gun violence reduction strategy. It is reducing gun violence in the City of Oakland with remarkable results and tangible improvements. The leadership of Rev. Damita Davis-Howard, Ceasefire director, Dr. Joshi of the Department of Violence Prevention, and the Ceasefire Strategy partners must be commended for this incredible work in ensuring public safety,” said Pastor Michael Wallace, Oakland Public Safety and Services Oversight Commission member.

“The Oakland Ceasefire Strategy is one of the most comprehensive, intelligence-led violence reduction initiatives I have had the privilege to be a part of and fully support,” said Oakland Police Department Chief Floyd Mitchell.

“The 2024 violent crime reduction data realized by the City of Oakland underscores the effectiveness of our unwavering focus, strategic emphasis, and strong collaborative partnerships within the Ceasefire framework,” Mitchell continued. “Thanks to the dedicated efforts of the Oakland Police Department, and the invaluable contributions of our community, county, state, and federal partners, Oakland has achieved a 34% decrease in homicides, a 33% decline in firearm-related assaults, and a 25% reduction in robberies.”

“Oakland is once again a national leader in gun violence reduction,” said David Muhammad, executive director of NICJR. “Through the hard work of community violence intervention workers in partnership with city staff, police officers, Alameda County Probation, and others, many lives were saved in Oakland this year.”