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Golden State Could have $25 Billion Deficit in 2023-24 Fiscal Year

California taxes wealthy people more than other states, so most of the revenue decline is because the rich aren’t making as much money as they used to. The report details that California could see deficits between $8 billion to $17 billion in the following years.

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The surplus is gone once a budget is passed, according to the LAO, so the fiscal outlook provided to legislators assumes that current state laws and policies will remain in place.
The surplus is gone once a budget is passed, according to the LAO, so the fiscal outlook provided to legislators assumes that current state laws and policies will remain in place.

By McKenzie Jackson, California Black Media

California’s government may have a faceoff with a $25 billion budget shortfall in the upcoming fiscal year as tax revenues decline, according to a report issued by the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO).

During a Nov.16 video press briefing, Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek said that if the predicted downturn happens, it will be the Golden State’s weakest revenue performance since the 2008 to 2009 Great Recession.

“It is not insignificant, but it is also manageable,” Petek said. “We don’t think of this as a budget crisis. We just think of it as a notable budget problem that the Legislature will have to confront when it begins that process in January.”

The LAO, the state Legislature’s fiscal and policy advisor, details the budget shortfall and suggests ways to avoid it in the 20-page “The 2023-24 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook.”

The document is released yearly around this time to help guide California lawmakers as they begin to put together budget proposals for the upcoming fiscal year.

Petek said the threat of a national recession and actions by the Federal Reserve played a hand in the report’s outlook, but the predicted numbers are not based on a recession occurring.

“Economic conditions are really weighing on the revenue estimates that are a major influencer of our fiscal output,” Petek said. “With elevated inflation that causes the Fed to have to take action to cool down the economy in its effort to bring down inflation. The longer and the higher inflation remains, the more aggressive the Fed has to be. And the more aggressive the Fed has to be, it really increases the risk that the economy will fall into a recession. So, that being said, our revenue estimates do not assume a recession.”

California taxes wealthy people more than other states, so most of the revenue decline is because the rich aren’t making as much money as they used to. The report details that California could see deficits between $8 billion to $17 billion in the following years.

Less spending on large, one-time allocations is one way the state can offset the revenue losses it is expected to experience.

In response to the LAO budget prediction, Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D-Lakewood) said the state has budget resiliency — $37.2 billion in reserves.

“We can and will protect the progress of the recent year’s budgets,” Rendon said. “In particular, the Assembly will protect California’s historic school funding gains, as districts must continue to invest in retaining and recruiting staff to help kids advance and recover from the pandemic.”

State Senate Pro Tempore Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) said that in the past, the dreary budget forecast would have meant program cuts and middle-class tax increases.

“That does not have to be the case this year,” Atkins said. “Thanks to our responsible approach, we are confident that we can protect our progress and craft a state budget without ongoing cuts to schools and other core programs or taxing middle class families. The bottom line is simple: we are prepared to hold onto the gains we’ve made and continue where we left off once our economy and revenues rebound.”

Petek recommended that legislators not look to the reserves to solve the budget paucity when they begin formulating the state spending plan in early 2023.

“It would be prudent to try and identify other solutions in the early part of the budget period, and then if and when we have a lot more information about the economic situation — if revenues have deteriorated for example or if there were a recession, we are certainly not saying don’t use the reserves,” he said. “We are saying, keep them on hold and you have them to turn to in that situation if the picture has gone south in May. You have the reserves that we can tap into to really help supplement the other solutions identified earlier in the process.”

Republican Assemblymember Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) said the report is a wakeup call.

“California’s economy is weakening, and now with persistent inflation, the revenue that is coming into the State of California is coming in way below projection,” Fong said. “As someone who has been on the budget committee for a number of years, we have been warning about this. The ruling party in Sacramento continues to spend and grow government programs without any accountability and the budget is completely unsustainable. We have to refocus on fiscal responsibility.”

LAO’s budget forecast comes on the heels of Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic-controlled Legislature estimated $97 billion surplus that led to the expansion of Medi-Cal eligibility to all immigrants in 2024, a boost in the earned income tax credit, and free preschool for 4-year-olds.

A relief package, priced at $17 billion, to help families, seniors and low-income Californians and small businesses was also approved in June by lawmakers.

The surplus is gone once a budget is passed, according to the LAO, so the fiscal outlook provided to legislators assumes that current state laws and policies will remain in place.

“We make adjustments for caseloads and things that influence the budget expenditures, but if you keep the same policies what would your budget picture look like?” Petek said. “That is what we are trying to tee up for them as they await the governor’s proposal.”

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How Charles R. Drew University Navigated More Than $20 Million in Fed Cuts – Still Prioritizing Students and Community Health

Named after the pioneering physician Dr. Charles R. Drew, famous for his work in blood preservation, CDU’s mission is to cultivate “diverse health professional leaders dedicated to social justice and health equity for underserved populations through education, research, clinical service, and, above all, community engagement.”

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Photo Caption: The campus of Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science (CDU) in Los Angeles. CBM photo by Max Elramsisy.
Photo Caption: The campus of Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science (CDU) in Los Angeles. CBM photo by Max Elramsisy.

Charlene Muhammad | California Black Media

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Earlier this year, when the federal government slashed more than $20 million in grants to Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science (CDU), the leadership of California’s only historically Black medical school scrambled to stabilize its finances — while protecting its staff and students.

Named after the pioneering physician Dr. Charles R. Drew, famous for his work in blood preservation, CDU’s mission is to cultivate “diverse health professional leaders dedicated to social justice and health equity for underserved populations through education, research, clinical service, and, above all, community engagement.”

The school is widely recognized as a vital pipeline for Black doctors and other health professionals throughout California.

Dr. David Carlisle (center), President of Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science (CDU),  with two of the university’s students. Photo Courtesy of Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science.

Dr. David Carlisle (center), President of Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science (CDU), with two of the university’s students. Photo Courtesy of Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science.

Dr. Jose Torres-Ruiz, CDU’s Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs and Provost, said the university—designated as a Historically Black Graduate Institution (HBGI)—was notified in early March 2025 that most of its major grants, including the Research Centers in Minority Institutions (RCMI) award, known at CDU as the “Accelerating Excellence in Translational Science” (AXIS Grant), would be terminated. Initially renewed, the grant was later revoked because its language did not align with the current federal administration’s priorities.

The AXIS Grant provides $4.5 million per year for five years through the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities. CDU  quickly reallocated other funds to protect its scientists, staff, and technicians, though some personnel losses were unavoidable.

“We didn’t want to fire them because these people have expertise that takes years to gain,” Torres-Ruiz said.

The grant is crucial, he added, funding research in cancer, diabetes, and metabolic diseases that affect the Willowbrook community in South Los Angeles, training the next generation of scientists, and supporting community outreach.

Programs at the school, including its youth and teen mentoring programs reach beyond the walls of the university, impacting the lives and quality of health care of people in the surrounding community, one of the most underserved areas in Los Angeles County.

Confronted with the harsh reality of funding cuts, the university’s leadership made an early, strategic choice to honor its foundational commitment and prioritize its students. Dr. Deborah Prothrow-Stith, dean of CDU’s College of Medicine, highlighted the school’s deliberate focus on admitting students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds — many of whom are Pell Grant recipients and graduates of public high schools.

“We are staying true to our mission, finding creative ways to prioritize what’s most important,” she said. “I’m optimistic because of our students—they are dedicated and committed to service.”

In addition, the $2 million-per-year John  Lewis NIMHD Research Endowment Program, intended to strengthen CDU’s research infrastructure, was terminated with three years remaining after a February 2025 freeze on nearly all federal grants for public health, education, and infrastructure projects.

Following an appeal, CDU learned in June that the RCMI grant had been fully reinstated, along with all but eight smaller grants. The university’s next priority is restoring the John Lewis Endowment.

“We are working with NIH staff to adjust the language. Certain words like ‘diversity’ and ‘equity,’ which are core values of our institution, are now under scrutiny,” Torres-Ruiz explained.

CDU has also expanded funding sources by targeting foundations and private donors. “This may happen again. We cannot rely solely on federal agencies,” Torres-Ruiz said, emphasizing the importance of building relationships with politicians and private partners.

Prothrow Stith echoed Ruiz’s perspective on cultivating multiple funding sources. “Building bridges with private foundations helps, but it doesn’t erase the disruption,” she said.

Many students rely on federal loans, CDU leaders say. Those loans are now capped at $150,000. So, most medical students graduate with $300,000–$350,000 in debt when accounting for tuition and living expenses.

To lower the burden on students, CDU is exploring options to make education more affordable, including overlapping school years to reduce annual costs.

Students like Isaiah Hoffman and Bailey Moore epitomize  CDU’s values.

Hoffman, an aspiring orthopedic surgeon from Inglewood, credits Drew for inspiring his career choice. Out of 12 medical school acceptances, he chose CDU to give back to his community and continue Drew’s legacy. Hoffman also founded H.O.M.I.E.S. Inc., a nonprofit pairing Black K–12 students with mentors to support academic and personal growth.

Moore, 23, from Southeast Washington, D.C., pursued CDU to address maternal health disparities she observed in her own community – an underserved area of the nation’s capital city. “CDU pours into you. It emphasizes service, and I hope for a world without health disparities,” she said. “Drew may be small, but Drew is mighty. It was created out of necessity to save lives and empower communities.”

CDU President and CEO Dr. David Carlisle acknowledged during the Aug. 28 “State of the University” that the institution faces ongoing challenges. Political threats and grant disruptions contributed to a sizable unrestricted budget deficit, despite achievements over the past year.

Successful appeals and alternative sources of funding, led by Vice Provost Dr. Ali Andallibi, have now restored all the monies previously lost in research funding, he said.

Carlisle expressed gratitude to L.A. Care Health Plan and Sutter Health for providing multimillion-dollar scholarships and highlighted that CDU would welcome approximately 1,050 incoming students—near its highest enrollment ever. “I’m deeply grateful for the resolve, diligence, and unwavering commitment of everyone here, even when the path is not easy,” he said.

At the gathering, Carlisle referred to the sounds of ambulances passing by with blaring sirens as- the “music of healthcare,” while students and the school’s leadership attending expressed resilience in their speeches and conversations. The activities of the day captured the institution’s focus on education, service and advancing health care across disadvantaged communities in California – and beyond.

Video Report: How Charles Drew Stayed Strong Amid Federal Funding Cuts

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Oakland Post: Week of November 12 – 18, 2025

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of November 12 – 18, 2025

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Oakland Post: Week of November 5 – 11, 2025

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of November 5 – 11, 2025

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