National

Mass Incarceration No Factor in Crime Drop

Published

11 years ago

June 2, 2015

By Jazelle Hunt
NNPA Washington Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. (NNPA) – The crime rate has been steadily decreasing for 25 years, but mass incarceration has had very little, if any, impact on the decline, according to a report from the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.

The 134-page study, titled “What Caused the Crime Decline?” found that “when other variables are controlled for, increasing incarceration had a minimal effect on reducing property crime in the 1990s and no effect on violent crime.”

The report continued, “In the 2000s, increased incarceration had no effect on violent crime and accounted for less than one-hundredth of the decade’s property crime drop.”

Some states with large Black populations, such as Michigan, Texas, New York, and California, even reduced their prison populations during the crime decline with no adverse effects. Texas, for example, has decreased its imprisonment rate by 15 to 25 percent since 2000; at the same, both property crime and violent crime have dropped about 20 to 30 percent.

The NYU report examines the significance of several most-likely factors in the crime decline, such as increased police numbers, gun laws, unemployment, drug use, and more. Growth in income, decreased alcohol, and the aging population use were the three most important factors in the crime decline that the researchers could verify. Together, they were responsible for up to 25 percent of the drop in both violent and property crime.

Inflation and consumer confidence had some effect on property crime over the last 25 years to a lesser (and harder to prove) degree. In the ‘90s, but not the 2000s, decreased crack use, legalized abortion, and decreased lead in gasoline also “possibly” had some effect on both property and violent crime, according to the research.

Police departments were the wildcard.

On one hand, a rise in officer recruitment was responsible for up to 10 percent of the overall crime decline in the ’90s, though that effect has worn off over the last decade. Law enforcement’s CompStat approach – which uses data and technology to analyze local crime and direct attention and resources accordingly to reduce it – also appeared to have a positive effect on the nation’s 50 most populated cities; overall, it has been responsible for a 5 to 15 percent drop in crime where implemented.

But in city-by-city analysis of CompStat, its impact varies. In Oakland, Calif. for example, crime had increased 36 percent during the year before CompStat was introduced. During the year after, crime was down 4 percent. In Philadelphia, crime had increased 14 percent in the previous year, and another 8 percent the year after CompStat. In a more current example, New York’s crime rate fell during the NYPD slowdown in the wake of protests against the choking death of Eric Garner. But Baltimore is experiencing its deadliest month in 15 years since the Baltimore Police Department’s slowdown following the death of Freddie Gray while in police custody.

Further, the police are often a gateway to the criminal justice system and the first link in the chain of mass incarceration.

Mass incarceration has not only ceased to be a factor in deterring crime, it has also become a drain on American society.

The United States accounts for 5 percent of the world’s population but holds 25 percent of its incarcerated population. One in three Americans now has a criminal record. One in nine school-aged Black children has or has had a parent in prison. The Brennan Center calculates that federal prison spending has increased 1,100 percent in 30 years as a result of being overpopulated by more than 30 percent – fueling the rise of for-profit prisons that disproportionately house young Blacks and Latinos.

“When I say today’s unprecedented levels [of incarceration] I mean the 2.3 million Americans incarcerated today. Incarceration is not just any policy…incarceration comes with huge tolls. It costs $260 billion a year and it’s not doing anything to reduce crime,” said Lauren-Brooke Eisen, one of the report’s co-authors, speaking at an event on its implications.

“Research has shown, in fact, that the U.S. poverty rate has increased by 20 percent because of mass incarceration rate. There are proposals on the table to cut back on mandatory minimums, to curb nonviolent drug offenses, and there is renewed attention being paid across the country to rehabilitation to lower recidivism rates. All of these proposals are worth great consideration.”

Eisen believes that new sentencing policies are the best way to undo mass incarceration and its effects, adding that mandatory minimums sentencing caused a 750-percent growth in the federal prison system alone since the 1980s. Bipartisan bills such as the Smarter Sentencing Act (S. 502) and the Corrections Act (S. 467) target mandatory minimums for nonviolent offenses, and expand state-based programs that successfully deter crime and reduce recidivism.

“We are at somewhat of a crossroads. Many states and state policy makers, federal policy makers, and constituents have realized the economic and moral costs of mass incarceration, and have realized that it’s just not worth the expense,” Eisen said. “We are hoping that this report we just issued on the crime decline will provide additional evidence to policy makers in states and here on Capitol Hill that today’s unprecedented levels of incarceration are not making us safer.”

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Oakland Post: Week of December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of – December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

Published

7 days ago

January 2, 2026

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2025 in Review: Seven Questions for Assemblymember Lori Wilson — Advocate for Equity, the Environment, and More

Her rise has also included several historic firsts: she is the only Black woman ever appointed to lead the influential Assembly Transportation Committee, and the first freshman legislator elected Chair of the California Legislative Black Caucus. She has also been a vocal advocate for vulnerable communities, becoming the first California legislator to publicly discuss being the parent of a transgender child — an act of visibility that has helped advanced representation at a time when political tensions related to social issues and culture have intensified.

Published

2 weeks ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

Assemblymember Lori D. Wilson (D-Suisun City). File photo.

By Edward Henderson, California Black Media

Assemblymember Lori D. Wilson (D-Suisun City) joined the California Legislature in 2022 after making history as Solano County’s first Black female mayor, bringing with her a track record of fiscal discipline, community investment, and inclusive leadership.

She represents the state’s 11th Assembly District, which spans Solano County and portions of Contra Costa and Sacramento Counties.

California Black Media spoke with Wilson about her successes and disappointments this year and her outlook for 2026.

What stands out as your most important achievement this year?

Getting SB 237 passed in the Assembly. I had the opportunity to co-lead a diverse workgroup of colleagues, spanning a wide range of ideological perspectives on environmental issues.

How did your leadership contribute to improving the lives of Black Californians this year?

The Black Caucus concentrated on the Road to Repair package and prioritized passing a crucial bill that remained incomplete during my time as chair, which establishes a process for identifying descendants of enslaved people for benefit eligibility.

What frustrated you the most this year?

The lack of progress made on getting Prop 4 funds allocated to socially disadvantaged farmers. This delay has real consequences. These farmers have been waiting for essential support that was promised. Watching the process stall, despite the clear need and clear intent of the voters, has been deeply frustrating and reinforces how much work remains to make our systems more responsive and equitable.

What inspired you the most this year?

The resilience of Californians persists despite the unprecedented attacks from the federal government. Watching people stay engaged, hopeful, and determined reminded me why this work matters and why we must continue to protect the rights of every community in our state.

What is one lesson you learned this year that will inform your decision-making next year?

As a legislator, I have the authority to demand answers to my questions — and accept nothing less. That clarity has strengthened my approach to oversight and accountability.

In one word, what is the biggest challenge Black Californians are facing currently?

Affordability and access to quality educational opportunities.

What is the goal you want to achieve most in 2026?

Advance my legislative agenda despite a complex budget environment. The needs across our communities are real, and even in a tight fiscal year, I’m committed to moving forward policies that strengthen safety, expand opportunity, and improve quality of life for the people I represent.

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2025 in Review: Seven Questions for Assemblymember Tina McKinnor, Champion of Reparations, Housing and Workers’ Rights

In 2025, McKinnor pushed forward legislation on renters’ protections, re-entry programs, reparations legislation, and efforts to support Inglewood Unified School District. She spoke with California Black Media about the past year and her work. Here are her responses.

Published

2 weeks ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

Assemblymember Tina McKinnor (D-Inglewood). File photo.

By Joe W. Bowers Jr., California Black Media

Assemblymember Tina McKinnor (D-Inglewood) represents

California’s 61st Assembly District.

As a member of the California Legislative Black Caucus (CLBC),

McKinnor was elected in 2022. She chairs the Los Angeles County Legislative Delegation and leads the Assembly Public Employment and Retirement Committee. McKinnor also served as a civic engagement director, managed political campaigns, and worked as chief of staff for former Assemblymembers Steven Bradford and Autumn Burke.

Looking back on 2025, what do you see as your biggest win?

Assembly Bill (AB) 628. If rent is $3,000, people should at least have a stove and a refrigerator. It’s ridiculous that people were renting without basic appliances.

I’m also proud that I was able to secure $8.4 million in the state budget for people coming home from incarceration. That includes the Homecoming Project, the menopause program for incarcerated women, and the Justice Leaders Program.

How did your leadership help make life better for Black Californians this year?

After the Eaton Fire, I pushed to get the same kind of support for affected areas that wealthier regions get after disasters.

I also did a lot of work building political power— establishing the Black Legacy PAC and California for All of Us PAC so we could support Black candidates and educate voters. We also called voters to make sure they understood Prop 50.

People need to understand this: there are only 12 Black legislators in the Capitol. Folks act like we can just walk in and pass reparations, but that’s not how it works.

What frustrated you most this year?

The governor did not have the political will to sign these bills: AB 57 and AB 62. They both passed overwhelmingly in the Assembly and the Senate. We did the work. The only person who didn’t have the political will to sign them was the governor.

The public needs to ask the governor why he didn’t sign the bills. We can’t keep letting people off the hook. He has to answer.

I also introduced AB 51 — the bill to eliminate interest payments on Inglewood Unified School District’s long-standing state loan — held in the Appropriations Committee. That was frustrating,

What inspired you most in 2025?

The civil rights trip to Alabama was life changing. We visited the Legacy Museum and the National Memorial for Peace and Justice. We took members of the Black, Latino, Jewish, and API caucuses with us. It changed all of us.

People aren’t always against us — they just don’t know our history.

What’s one lesson from 2025 that will shape how you approach decisions next year?

The legislative trip to Norway taught me that collaboration matters. Government, labor, and industry sit down together there. They don’t make villains. Everybody doesn’t get everything they want, but they solve problems.

What’s the biggest challenge facing Black Californians in one word?

Inequity. It shows up in housing, wealth, stress – all these things.

What’s the number one goal you want to accomplish in 2026?

Bringing back AB 57 and AB 62, and securing money for the Inglewood Unified loan interest forgiveness.