A new professionally conducted poll of local voters indicates that more than a year before the November 2022 election, Oakland residents are deeply unhappy with the direction their city is going. Many voters are already backing City Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan, who significantly leads in a field of 10 potential mayoral candidates, the only one with double-digit first-place votes.

Kaplan received 14% of first place votes and adding in those who gave her their second-choice votes, 20% of the voters want Kaplan as mayor, according to the poll conducted on October 16-18.

Councilmember Loren Taylor came in second in the poll with 9% of first-choice votes and 2% of second-choice votes – for a total of 11% of the vote.

Former City Councilmember Ignacio De La Fuente came in third with 7% of first- and second-place votes, while Councilmember Sheng Thao came in fourth, with a total of 6% of first- and second-place votes.

None of the other candidates reached more than 4% of total first- and second-choice votes, including Councilmember Treva Reid, Port Commissioner Ces Butner, small business owner Derreck Johnson, youth development consultant Greg Hodge, community advocate Ken Houston and Oakland developer Phil Tagami.

“This is a base line poll, and most voters are undecided, (but) they have strong thoughts about homelessness, crime, housing affordability and what to do about crime. They also had strong thoughts about the mayor,” said Gregory McConnell, president and CEO of the Jobs and Housing Coalition, which commissioned the poll and released the results to the media.

The poll was conducted by David Binder Research, with a sample size of 400, with a +/- 4.9% margin of error.

While most voters (62%) are undecided about who they will vote for so far from Election Day, they do have strong feelings about the major issues facing the city and have negative opinions about the leadership of outgoing Mayor Schaaf, who is in her second term and cannot run again.

Of all the issues facing the city and its residents, three stood out by far: Homelessness/panhandling with 49%; Crime/Public Safety with 47% and Affordable Housing/Cost of Rents with 23% voters. Illegal/dumping/Trash in streets came in fourth with 9%.

Nineteen other issues, including jobs, police brutality, gentrification, and government corruption, were chosen as a “major issue” by single digit percentages of voters.

Voters were unenthusiastic about the Schaaf’s job performance.  Giving her a favorable rating were 37% of voters, while 54% gave her an unfavorable rating. Further, in a direct question – “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Libby Schaaf is doing as mayor?” –  nearly 60% of voters disapproved or strongly disapproved of her performance.

The unfavorable rating for the Oakland City Council is also high.

Asked if they would vote to re-elect Schaaf if she could legally run again, only 25% said they would reelect her, while 58% said they would “replace” her.

Further, in a question about whether voters would be more likely to vote for or against a candidate endorsed by Schaaf, 26% they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by her and 35% would be “less likely” or “much less likely” to support that candidate.

By comparison, Kaplan’s favorability rating was 41% favorable and 35% unfavorable.

Another question posed a list of priorities that the next mayor might embrace, and voters were asked to indicate whether championing these issues would make the voters more likely or less likely to vote for that candidate.

Reducing homelessness received the highest rating with 93% saying more likely, while 82% said they would more likely support a candidate who makes housing more affordable, and 59% they want a mayor who protects industrial jobs.

The demographics of the people polled were: 11% Latino, 35% white, 34% Black and 11% Asian.  Ages were; 24% under 35; 20% ranging from 35-44; 16% ranging from 45-54; 16% in the 55-64 range; and 25% over 65.

The Oakland Post’s coverage of local news in Alameda County is supported by the Ethnic Media Sustainability Initiative, a program created by California Black Media and Ethnic Media Services to support community newspapers across California.

Isabelle Price

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