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School Discipline Can Be Predicted, New Research Says. Is It Preventable?

Rates of school discipline fluctuate widely and predictably throughout a school year and increase significantly faster for Black students than for their white counterparts, University of California, Berkeley, researchers have found. A new study published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences documents for the first time the “dynamic” nature of student discipline during an academic year.

Published

3 years ago

April 27, 2023

Oakland Post

Daily discipline rates in middle schools fluctuate widely throughout the school year, researchers say, with disparities worsening for Black students. Graphic courtesy UC Berkeley.

By Jason Pohl

A new study published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences documents for the first time the “dynamic” nature of student discipline during an academic year. Daily rates of punishment across all schools in the study ratchet up in the weeks before Thanksgiving break, decline immediately before major vacations and increase rapidly again when classes resume.

Schools with a high degree of racial disparity regarding discipline referrals or suspensions early in the year see discipline rates for Black students increase even faster as the semester continues, researchers found. By November, the Black student discipline rate is 10 times higher than at the beginning of the year. Compared to white students, it’s 50 times higher.

“This work is a game-changer,” said Jason Okonofua, assistant professor of psychology at UC Berkeley, and the study’s principal investigator. “We can predict year-long suspension rates in just the first 21 days of school. That’s information that we needed to know. And now we do.”

Okonofua and his colleagues used improved daily discipline-tracking technology to study the snapshots of middle school punishments. Going forward, the granular information they gleaned can help educators keep tabs on escalating school tension. It can even help teachers and school officials ward off potential discipline-causing incidents, much like they modify a lesson plan to overcome a learning gap in the classroom.

“The more information you have, the better decisions you can make,” Okonofua said. “If principals or teachers know by Halloween in any given year these students are facing this very heightened risk of being kicked out of school, or in which schools these students face the highest risk, we can get in there and do something about it, as opposed to letting it fester.

“Because the data shows, it would.”

Long the focus of federal inquiries, policy debate and scholarly interest, school discipline disparities have been well-documented nationwide. Recent research has shown that high school students who are suspended are more than twice as likely to be charged or convicted of a crime and incarcerated as young adults.

Brief online coursework for teachers can even increase empathy and reduce suspensions. Yet, the debate is increasing about whether school officials should be quicker to kick students out of class.

While cycles of school tension might seem intuitive, the focus historically has not been on measuring punishment rates in real-time or introducing interventions before incidents occur.

Instead, districts collect data on student discipline and produce year-end reports for state and federal regulators to examine how discipline varies among schools, which ones are more punitive and where to target interventions. While that “static” data provides a summary of what’s gone on throughout the year, it fails to capture the day-to-day realities at school.

To understand this more “dynamic nature” of student discipline, Okonofua and his colleagues assembled four years of data about the daily disciplinary experiences of 46,964 students across 61 middle schools in one of the 10 largest school districts in the country.

The district was located in a southern U.S. state, and, like an increasing number of organizations, it had implemented a more sophisticated discipline data tracking system.

The results — especially the disparities — were immediately startling.

“It is incredibly important, useful and valuable to know we should do a specific type of intervention at a specific point in the year based on the real-time data. That’s where we’re going to get the biggest bang for our buck,” Okonofua said. “If we can be more cost-efficient, everybody wins.”

Okonofua’s co-authors — Sean Darling-Hammond of UCLA, Michael Ruiz of UC Berkeley and Jennifer L. Eberhardt of Stanford University — also published a short video that uses beeping tones to illustrate discipline disparities between Black and white students. The anxiety-inducing tones are meant to simulate how stressful school can be when students are witnessing increasing discipline.

Okonofua likened school discipline tracking tools to an athlete’s heart rate monitor at the gym. Rather than simply estimating how hard a workout was, real-time data can be more useful.

“The more data we have, the more we know,” Okonofua said. “And the more we know, the more we can do.”

The study shows how important it is for districts to create systems for teachers to regularly monitor school discipline, he said. Policy leaders should likewise take note as they write policies and dedicate funding meant to curb discipline, alleviate disparities and minimize disruption.

“It’s important to think about each data point. That’s a whole story,” said Okonofua, reflecting on discipline’s lasting effects on both the student in trouble and classmates witnessing the punishment. “I hope we can do as much as possible going forward to just keep in mind that each one of these data points is a whole life.”

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Oakland Post: Week of December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of – December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

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2 weeks ago

January 2, 2026

Oakland Post

To enlarge your view of this issue, use the slider, magnifying glass icon or full page icon in the lower right corner of the browser window.

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Big God Ministry Gives Away Toys in Marin City

Pastor Hall also gave a message of encouragement to the crowd, thanking Jesus for the “best year of their lives.” He asked each of the children what they wanted to be when they grow up.

Published

3 weeks ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

From top left: Pastor David Hall asking the children what they want to be when they grow up. Worship team Jake Monaghan, Ruby Friedman, and Keri Carpenter. Children lining up to receive their presents. Photos by Godfrey Lee.

By Godfrey Lee

Big God Ministries, pastored by David Hall, gave toys to the children in Marin City on Monday, Dec. 15, on the lawn near the corner of Drake Avenue and Donahue Street.

Pastor Hall also gave a message of encouragement to the crowd, thanking Jesus for the “best year of their lives.” He asked each of the children what they wanted to be when they grew up.

Around 75 parents and children were there to receive the presents, which consisted mainly of Gideon Bibles, Cat in the Hat pillows, Barbie dolls, Tonka trucks, and Lego building sets.

A half dozen volunteers from the Big God Ministry, including Donnie Roary, helped to set up the tables for the toy giveaway. The worship music was sung by Ruby Friedman, Keri Carpenter, and Jake Monaghan, who also played the accordion.

Big God Ministries meets on Sundays at 10 a.m. at the Mill Valley Community Center, 180 Camino Alto, Mill Valley, CA Their phone number is (415) 797-2567.

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First 5 Alameda County Distributes Over $8 Million in First Wave of Critical Relief Funds for Historically Underpaid Caregivers

“Family, Friend, and Neighbor caregivers are lifelines for so many children and families in Alameda County,” said Kristin Spanos, CEO, First 5 Alameda County. “Yet, they often go unrecognized and undercompensated for their labor and ability to give individualized, culturally connected care. At First 5, we support the conditions that allow families to thrive, and getting this money into the hands of these caregivers and families at a time of heightened financial stress for parents is part of that commitment.”

Published

3 weeks ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

Costco. Courtesy image.

Family, Friend, and Neighbor Caregivers Can Now Opt Into $4,000 Grants to Help Bolster Economic Stability and Strengthen Early Learning Experiences

By Post Staff

Today, First 5 Alameda County announced the distribution of $4,000 relief grants to more than 2,000 Family, Friend, and Neighbor (FFN) caregivers, totaling over $8 million in the first round of funding. Over the full course of the funding initiative, First 5 Alameda County anticipates supporting over 3,000 FFN caregivers, who collectively care for an estimated 5,200 children across Alameda County. These grants are only a portion of the estimated $190 million being invested into expanding our early childcare system through direct caregiver relief to upcoming facilities, shelter, and long-term sustainability investments for providers fromMeasure C in its first year. This investment builds on the early rollout of Measure C and reflects a comprehensive, system-wide strategy to strengthen Alameda County’s early childhood ecosystem so families can rely on sustainable, accessible care,

These important caregivers provide child care in Alameda County to their relatives, friends, and neighbors. While public benefits continue to decrease for families, and inflation and the cost of living continue to rise, these grants provide direct economic support for FFN caregivers, whose wages have historically been very low or nonexistent, and very few of whom receive benefits. As families continue to face growing financial pressures, especially during the winter and holiday season, these grants will help these caregivers with living expenses such as rent, utilities, supplies, and food.

The funding for these relief grants comes from Measure C, a local voter-approved sales tax in Alameda County that invests in young children, their families, communities, providers, and caregivers. Within the first year of First 5’s 5-Year Plan for Measure C, in addition to the relief grants to informal FFN caregivers, other significant investments will benefit licensed child care providers. These investments include over $40 million in Early Care and Education (ECE) Emergency Grants, which have already flowed to nearly 800 center-based and family child care providers. As part of First 5’s 5-Year Plan, preparations are also underway to distribute facilities grants early next year for child care providers who need to make urgent repairs or improvements, and to launch the Emergency Revolving Fund in Spring 2026 to support licensed child care providers in Alameda County who are at risk of closure.

The FFN Relief Grants recognize and support the essential work that an estimated 3,000 FFN caregivers provide to 5,200 children in Alameda County. There is still an opportunity to receive funds for FFN caregivers who have not yet received them.

In partnership with First 5 Alameda County, Child Care Payment Agencies play a critical role in identifying eligible caregivers and leading coordinated outreach efforts to ensure FFN caregivers are informed of and able to access these relief funds.FFN caregivers are eligible for the grant if they receive a child care payment from an Alameda County Child Care Payment Agency, 4Cs of Alameda County, BANANAS, Hively, and Davis Street, and are currently caring for a child 12 years old or younger in Alameda County. Additionally, FFN caregivers who provided care for a child 12 years or younger at any time since April 1, 2025, but are no longer doing so, are also eligible for the funds. Eligible caregivers are being contacted by their Child Care Payment Agency on a rolling basis, beginning with those who provided care between April and July 2025.

“This money is coming to me at a critical time of heightened economic strain,” said Jill Morton, a caregiver in Oakland, California. “Since I am a non-licensed childcare provider, I didn’t think I was eligible for this financial support. I was relieved that this money can help pay my rent, purchase learning materials for the children as well as enhance childcare, buy groceries and take care of grandchildren.”

Eligible FFN caregivers who provided care at any time between April 1, 2025 and July 31, 2025, who haven’t yet opted into the process, are encouraged to check their mail and email for an eligibility letter. Those who have cared for a child after this period should expect to receive communications from their child care payment agency in the coming months. FFN caregivers with questions may also contact the agency they work with to receive child care payments, or the First 5 Alameda help desk, Monday through Friday, from 9 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. PST, at 510-227-6964. The help desk will be closed 12/25/25 – 1/1/26. Additional grant payments will be made on a rolling basis as opt-ins are received by the four child care payment agencies in Alameda County.

Beginning in the second year of Measure C implementation, FFN caregivers who care for a child from birth to age five and receive an Alameda County subsidized voucher will get an additional $500 per month. This amounts to an annual increase of about $6,000 per child receiving a subsidy. Together with more Measure C funding expected to flow back into the community as part of First 5’s 5-Year Plan, investments will continue to become available in the coming year for addressing the needs of childcare providers in Alameda County.

About First 5 Alameda County

First 5 Alameda County builds the local childhood systems and supports needed to ensure our county’s youngest children are safe, healthy, and ready to succeed in school and life.

Our Mission

In partnership with the community, we support a county-wide continuous prevention and early intervention system that promotes optimal health and development, narrows disparities, and improves the lives of children from birth to age five and their families.

Our Vision

Every child in Alameda County will have optimal health, development, and well-being to reach their greatest potential.

Learn more at www.first5alameda.org.