Business
The Bull Market Turns 6 After Rising from Financial Crisis

In this March 4, 2015 photo, people pose with the Charging Bull sculpture, by artist Arturo Di Modica, in New York’s Financial District. Six years after the Standard & Poor’s 500 index bottomed out at 676.53 on March 9, 2009, investors are enjoying one of the longest bull markets since the 1940s. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
Steve Rothwell, ASSOCIATED PRESS
NEW YORK (AP) — In 2009 the stock market was filled with panic.
The housing market had collapsed. Lehman Brothers had gone under and General Motors was on the verge of bankruptcy reorganization. The U.S. was in a deep recession, and stocks had plunged 57 percent from their high in October 2007.
Fast forward six years, and investors are enjoying one of the longest bull markets since the 1940s.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has more than tripled since bottoming out at 676.53 on March 9, 2009. The bull has pushed through a U.S. debt crisis, an escalating conflict in the Middle East, renewed tensions with Russia over Ukraine and Europe’s stagnating economy.
So has this bull run its course? Most market strategists haven’t yet seen the signs that typically accompany a market peak. Investors are yet to become rash, or overconfident.
“Bull markets end not because they grow old. They end because some excesses build,” says Stephen Freedman, head of cross-asset strategy at UBS Wealth Management.
Here are questions and answers about the run-up in stocks:
Q: WHY DO STOCKS KEEP RISING?
A: It’s a powerful combination of higher corporate profits and a growing economy.
The main driver is company earnings. Companies slashed costs in response to the Great Recession that began in December 2007. That helped boost profit margins when demand began to recover. As a result, earnings per share have risen consistently since the end of the recession in 2009. Companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to generate record earnings of $119.35 per share this year, nearly double what they earned in 2009.
Hiring is picking up and costs are down, and that means Americans are more confident about the economy than at any time since the recession. Unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent from a peak of 10 percent in 2009. A plunge in the price of oil has pushed down gas prices and put more money in Americans’ pockets. Most economists forecast growth of more than 3 percent this year.
As investors become more confident about growth, they’re willing to pay more for stocks. The average price-to-earnings ratio for an S&P 500 company, which measures how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar in earnings, stands at 17.2. Six years ago, it was 11.
Q: WHAT ROLE HAS THE FEDERAL RESERVE PLAYED?
The Federal Reserve has held its main lending rate close to zero since 2008. It has bought trillions of dollars in bonds to help hold down long-term interest rates. By cutting rates, policymakers have encouraged businesses and consumers to borrow and spend.
The historically low interest rates in the bond market have also made stocks look more attractive in comparison.
The average dividend yield, a measure of a company’s stock price compared to the dividend it pays, is 2.06 percent for S&P 500 stocks. The yield on the ultra-safe 10-year Treasury note is 2.24 percent.
“Essentially, by investing in the S&P, you’re getting the same yield as you would on a Treasury,” says Marc Pinto a portfolio manager at Janus. “But you have … the upside of stocks moving higher as companies grow their earnings.”
Low rates will likely help lift stocks for some time to come. While investors say there is a chance that the Fed may raise rates as soon as June, few expect a rapid series of rate hikes.
Q: HOW DOES THIS RUN COMPARE WITH PREVIOUS BULL MARKETS?
A: There have been 12 bull markets since the end of World War II, with the average run lasting 58 months, according to S&P Capital IQ. At 72 months, the current streak is the fourth longest in that period. While this run could be described as middle-aged, it is still a few years short of the longest streak, which started in 1990 and stretched 113 months into 2000.
Q: IF YOU INVESTED $10,000 AT THE BOTTON, HOW MUCH WOULD YOU HAVE MADE?
A: The S&P 500 has returned 253 percent since March 9, 2009. That means an investment of $10,000 would now be worth $25,262. Investing the same amount in the Dow Jones industrial average over the same time would have turned $10,000 into $22,428.
Q: HOW LONG CAN THIS BULL MARKET CONTINUE?
A: All bull markets must end. That’s simply the nature of financial markets. However, few analysts are calling the end of this one just yet.
The U.S. economy is continuing to strengthen and inflation remains tame. And while the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, other global central banks, like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, are still providing stimulus to their economies.
“I don’t anticipate that stocks will face any challenges in the near-term,” says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors. “If there were some type of a recession, or a slowdown in the U.S., that would hurt for sure … but I don’t see that on the horizon.”
Also, many of the excesses that accompany bull-market peaks haven’t surfaced, says UBS Wealth Management’s Freedman. Think of the housing boom that preceded the bust that began in 2007, or the dot-com mania of 1999 and early 2000.
“Because the recovery has been so sluggish, nobody has had time to go overboard with the type of behavior that’s come back to haunt the markets,” he says.
Q: WHAT KILLS BULL MARKETS?
A: Typically, it’s a recession. Four of the five bull markets since 1970 ended as investors got spooked by a recession, or the anticipation of one.
Bank of America analysts say that the most likely threat to the bull market would be rising inflation. That could cause a sell-off in bonds, sending shock waves throughout financial markets.
Another threat is a slump in earnings. That could happen if the surging dollar, already at a 12-year high against the euro, grows even stronger, making U.S. goods more expensive to customers overseas and translating into fewer dollars to corporate bottom lines.
Some investors are planning for a sell-off.
James Abate, chief investment officer of Centre Funds, says he sees a much stronger probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession than most investors and analysts. He says the stock market’s gains are at odds with the performance of the economy. Growth remains steady, but could hardly be described as robust. That means companies will have a hard time boosting sales, ultimately undermining their earnings.
“We will not be celebrating the seventh anniversary of the current bull market,” Abate says.
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Follow Steve Rothwell on Twitter @SteveRothwellAP.
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Activism
OPINION: Your Voice and Vote Impact the Quality of Your Health Care
One of the most dangerous developments we’re seeing now? Deep federal cuts are being proposed to Medicaid, the life-saving health insurance program that covers nearly 80 million lower-income individuals nationwide. That is approximately 15 million Californians and about 1 million of the state’s nearly 3 million Black Californians who are at risk of losing their healthcare.

By Rhonda M. Smith, Special to California Black Media Partners
Shortly after last year’s election, I hopped into a Lyft and struck up a conversation with the driver. As we talked, the topic inevitably turned to politics. He confidently told me that he didn’t vote — not because he supported Donald Trump, but because he didn’t like Kamala Harris’ résumé. When I asked what exactly he didn’t like, he couldn’t specifically articulate his dislike or point to anything specific. In his words, he “just didn’t like her résumé.”
That moment really hit hard for me. As a Black woman, I’ve lived through enough election cycles to recognize how often uncertainty, misinformation, or political apathy keep people from voting, especially Black voters whose voices are historically left out of the conversation and whose health, economic security, and opportunities are directly impacted by the individual elected to office, and the legislative branches and political parties that push forth their agenda.
That conversation with the Lyft driver reflects a troubling surge in fear-driven politics across our country. We’ve seen White House executive orders gut federal programs meant to help our most vulnerable populations and policies that systematically exclude or harm Black and underserved communities.
One of the most dangerous developments we’re seeing now? Deep federal cuts are being proposed to Medicaid, the life-saving health insurance program that covers nearly 80 million lower-income individuals nationwide. That is approximately 15 million Californians and about 1 million of the state’s nearly 3 million Black Californians who are at risk of losing their healthcare.
Medicaid, called Medi-Cal in California, doesn’t just cover care. It protects individuals and families from medical debt, keeps rural hospitals open, creates jobs, and helps our communities thrive. Simply put; Medicaid is a lifeline for 1 in 5 Black Americans. For many, it’s the only thing standing between them and a medical emergency they can’t afford, especially with the skyrocketing costs of health care. The proposed cuts mean up to 7.2 million Black Americans could lose their healthcare coverage, making it harder for them to receive timely, life-saving care. Cuts to Medicaid would also result in fewer prenatal visits, delayed cancer screenings, unfilled prescriptions, and closures of community clinics. When healthcare is inaccessible or unaffordable, it doesn’t just harm individuals, it weakens entire communities and widens inequities.
The reality is Black Americans already face disproportionately higher rates of poorer health outcomes. Our life expectancy is nearly five years shorter in comparison to White Americans. Black pregnant people are 3.6 times more likely to die during pregnancy or postpartum than their white counterparts.
These policies don’t happen in a vacuum. They are determined by who holds power and who shows up to vote. Showing up amplifies our voices. Taking action and exercising our right to vote is how we express our power.
I urge you to start today. Call your representatives, on both sides of the aisle, and demand they protect Medicaid (Medi-Cal), the Affordable Care Act (Covered CA), and access to food assistance programs, maternal health resources, mental health services, and protect our basic freedoms and human rights. Stay informed, talk to your neighbors and register to vote.
About the Author
Rhonda M. Smith is the Executive Director of the California Black Health Network, a statewide nonprofit dedicated to advancing health equity for all Black Californians.
Black History
Henry Blair, the Second African American to Obtain a Patent
Being a successful farmer required consistent production. Blair figured out a way to increase his harvest. He did this with two inventions. His first invention was a corn planter. The planter had the same structure as a wheelbarrow, with a box to hold the seed and rakes dragging behind to cover them. This machine allowed farmers to plant their crops more economically.

By Tamara Shiloh
The debate over whether enslaved African Americans could receive U.S. Government-issued patents was still unfolding when the second African American to hold a patent, Henry Blair, received his first patent in 1834.
The first African American to receive a patent was Thomas Jennings in 1821 for his discovery of a process called dry scouring, also known as dry cleaning.
Blair was born in Glen Ross, Maryland, in 1807. He was an African American farmer who received two patents. Each patent was designed to help increase agricultural productivity.
There is very little information about his life prior to the inventions. It is known that he was a farmer who invented machines to help with planting and harvesting crops. There is no written evidence that he was a slave.
However, it is apparent that he was a businessman.
Being a successful farmer required consistent production. Blair figured out a way to increase his harvest. He did this with two inventions. His first invention was a corn planter. The planter had the same structure as a wheelbarrow, with a box to hold the seed and rakes dragging behind to cover them. This machine allowed farmers to plant their crops more economically.
Blair could not write. As a result of his illiteracy, he signed the patent with an “X”. He received his first patent for the corn planter on Oct. 14, 1834.
Two years later, taking advantage of the boost in the cotton industry, he received his second patent. This time for a cotton planter. This machine worked by splitting the ground with two shovel-like blades that were pulled along by a horse. A wheel-driven cylinder behind the blades placed seeds into the freshly plowed ground. Not only was this another economical and efficient machine. It also helped with controlling weeds and put the seeds in the ground quickly Henry Blair received his second patent on Aug. 31, 1836
During this time, the United States government passed a law that allowed patents to be granted to both free and enslaved men. However, in 1857, this law was contested by a slaveowner. He argued that slaveowners had a right to claim credit for a slave’s inventions. His argument was that since an owner’s slaves were his property, anything that a slave owned was the property of the owner also.
In 1858 the law changed, and patents were no longer given to slaves. However, the law changed again in 1871 after the Civil War. The patent law was revised to permit all American men, regardless of race, the right to patent their inventions.
Blair died in 1860.
Bo Tefu
Gov. Newsom Highlights Record-Breaking Tourism Revenue, Warns of Economic Threats from Federal Policies
“California dominates as a premier destination for travelers throughout the nation and around the globe,” said Newsom. “With diverse landscapes, top-rate attractions, and welcoming communities, California welcomes millions of visitors every year. We also recognize that our state’s progress is threatened by the economic impacts of this federal administration, and are committed to working to protect jobs and ensure all Californians benefit from a thriving tourism industry.”

By Bo Tefu, California Black Media
Last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom, along with the nonprofit organization Visit California, announced that tourism spending in California reached a record $157.3 billion in 2024, reinforcing the state’s status as the top travel destination in the United States.
The Governor made the announcement May 5, referencing Visit California’s 2024 Economic Impact Report, which highlights a 3% increase in tourism revenue over the previous year.
According to the report, California’s tourism sector supported 1.2 million jobs, generated $12.6 billion in state and local tax revenues, and created 24,000 new jobs in 2024.
“California dominates as a premier destination for travelers throughout the nation and around the globe,” said Newsom. “With diverse landscapes, top-rate attractions, and welcoming communities, California welcomes millions of visitors every year. We also recognize that our state’s progress is threatened by the economic impacts of this federal administration, and are committed to working to protect jobs and ensure all Californians benefit from a thriving tourism industry.”
Despite the gains in tourism revenue, Visit California’s revised 2025 forecast points to a 1% decline in total visitation and a 9.2% decrease in international travel. The downturn is attributed to federal economic policy and what officials are calling an impending “Trump Slump,” caused by waning global interest in traveling to the United States.
To offset projected losses, the Governor is encouraging Californians to continue traveling within the state and has launched a new campaign aimed at Canadian travelers.
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