Business

The Bull Market Turns 6 After Rising from Financial Crisis

Published

11 years ago

March 9, 2015

In this March 4, 2015 photo, people pose with the Charging Bull sculpture, by artist Arturo Di Modica, in New York’s Financial District. Six years after the Standard & Poor’s 500 index bottomed out at 676.53 on March 9, 2009, investors are enjoying one of the longest bull markets since the 1940s. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Steve Rothwell, ASSOCIATED PRESS

NEW YORK (AP) — In 2009 the stock market was filled with panic.

The housing market had collapsed. Lehman Brothers had gone under and General Motors was on the verge of bankruptcy reorganization. The U.S. was in a deep recession, and stocks had plunged 57 percent from their high in October 2007.

Fast forward six years, and investors are enjoying one of the longest bull markets since the 1940s.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has more than tripled since bottoming out at 676.53 on March 9, 2009. The bull has pushed through a U.S. debt crisis, an escalating conflict in the Middle East, renewed tensions with Russia over Ukraine and Europe’s stagnating economy.

So has this bull run its course? Most market strategists haven’t yet seen the signs that typically accompany a market peak. Investors are yet to become rash, or overconfident.

“Bull markets end not because they grow old. They end because some excesses build,” says Stephen Freedman, head of cross-asset strategy at UBS Wealth Management.

Here are questions and answers about the run-up in stocks:
Q: WHY DO STOCKS KEEP RISING?

A: It’s a powerful combination of higher corporate profits and a growing economy.

The main driver is company earnings. Companies slashed costs in response to the Great Recession that began in December 2007. That helped boost profit margins when demand began to recover. As a result, earnings per share have risen consistently since the end of the recession in 2009. Companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to generate record earnings of $119.35 per share this year, nearly double what they earned in 2009.

Hiring is picking up and costs are down, and that means Americans are more confident about the economy than at any time since the recession. Unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent from a peak of 10 percent in 2009. A plunge in the price of oil has pushed down gas prices and put more money in Americans’ pockets. Most economists forecast growth of more than 3 percent this year.

As investors become more confident about growth, they’re willing to pay more for stocks. The average price-to-earnings ratio for an S&P 500 company, which measures how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar in earnings, stands at 17.2. Six years ago, it was 11.
Q: WHAT ROLE HAS THE FEDERAL RESERVE PLAYED?

The Federal Reserve has held its main lending rate close to zero since 2008. It has bought trillions of dollars in bonds to help hold down long-term interest rates. By cutting rates, policymakers have encouraged businesses and consumers to borrow and spend.

The historically low interest rates in the bond market have also made stocks look more attractive in comparison.

The average dividend yield, a measure of a company’s stock price compared to the dividend it pays, is 2.06 percent for S&P 500 stocks. The yield on the ultra-safe 10-year Treasury note is 2.24 percent.

“Essentially, by investing in the S&P, you’re getting the same yield as you would on a Treasury,” says Marc Pinto a portfolio manager at Janus. “But you have … the upside of stocks moving higher as companies grow their earnings.”

Low rates will likely help lift stocks for some time to come. While investors say there is a chance that the Fed may raise rates as soon as June, few expect a rapid series of rate hikes.
Q: HOW DOES THIS RUN COMPARE WITH PREVIOUS BULL MARKETS?

A: There have been 12 bull markets since the end of World War II, with the average run lasting 58 months, according to S&P Capital IQ. At 72 months, the current streak is the fourth longest in that period. While this run could be described as middle-aged, it is still a few years short of the longest streak, which started in 1990 and stretched 113 months into 2000.
Q: IF YOU INVESTED $10,000 AT THE BOTTON, HOW MUCH WOULD YOU HAVE MADE?

A: The S&P 500 has returned 253 percent since March 9, 2009. That means an investment of $10,000 would now be worth $25,262. Investing the same amount in the Dow Jones industrial average over the same time would have turned $10,000 into $22,428.
Q: HOW LONG CAN THIS BULL MARKET CONTINUE?

A: All bull markets must end. That’s simply the nature of financial markets. However, few analysts are calling the end of this one just yet.

The U.S. economy is continuing to strengthen and inflation remains tame. And while the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, other global central banks, like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, are still providing stimulus to their economies.

“I don’t anticipate that stocks will face any challenges in the near-term,” says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors. “If there were some type of a recession, or a slowdown in the U.S., that would hurt for sure … but I don’t see that on the horizon.”

Also, many of the excesses that accompany bull-market peaks haven’t surfaced, says UBS Wealth Management’s Freedman. Think of the housing boom that preceded the bust that began in 2007, or the dot-com mania of 1999 and early 2000.

“Because the recovery has been so sluggish, nobody has had time to go overboard with the type of behavior that’s come back to haunt the markets,” he says.
Q: WHAT KILLS BULL MARKETS?

A: Typically, it’s a recession. Four of the five bull markets since 1970 ended as investors got spooked by a recession, or the anticipation of one.

Bank of America analysts say that the most likely threat to the bull market would be rising inflation. That could cause a sell-off in bonds, sending shock waves throughout financial markets.

Another threat is a slump in earnings. That could happen if the surging dollar, already at a 12-year high against the euro, grows even stronger, making U.S. goods more expensive to customers overseas and translating into fewer dollars to corporate bottom lines.

Some investors are planning for a sell-off.

James Abate, chief investment officer of Centre Funds, says he sees a much stronger probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession than most investors and analysts. He says the stock market’s gains are at odds with the performance of the economy. Growth remains steady, but could hardly be described as robust. That means companies will have a hard time boosting sales, ultimately undermining their earnings.

“We will not be celebrating the seventh anniversary of the current bull market,” Abate says.

Follow Steve Rothwell on Twitter @SteveRothwellAP.
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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Oakland Post: Week of December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of – December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

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January 2, 2026

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Big God Ministry Gives Away Toys in Marin City

Pastor Hall also gave a message of encouragement to the crowd, thanking Jesus for the “best year of their lives.” He asked each of the children what they wanted to be when they grow up.

Published

5 days ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

From top left: Pastor David Hall asking the children what they want to be when they grow up. Worship team Jake Monaghan, Ruby Friedman, and Keri Carpenter. Children lining up to receive their presents. Photos by Godfrey Lee.

By Godfrey Lee

Big God Ministries, pastored by David Hall, gave toys to the children in Marin City on Monday, Dec. 15, on the lawn near the corner of Drake Avenue and Donahue Street.

Pastor Hall also gave a message of encouragement to the crowd, thanking Jesus for the “best year of their lives.” He asked each of the children what they wanted to be when they grew up.

Around 75 parents and children were there to receive the presents, which consisted mainly of Gideon Bibles, Cat in the Hat pillows, Barbie dolls, Tonka trucks, and Lego building sets.

A half dozen volunteers from the Big God Ministry, including Donnie Roary, helped to set up the tables for the toy giveaway. The worship music was sung by Ruby Friedman, Keri Carpenter, and Jake Monaghan, who also played the accordion.

Big God Ministries meets on Sundays at 10 a.m. at the Mill Valley Community Center, 180 Camino Alto, Mill Valley, CA Their phone number is (415) 797-2567.

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First 5 Alameda County Distributes Over $8 Million in First Wave of Critical Relief Funds for Historically Underpaid Caregivers

“Family, Friend, and Neighbor caregivers are lifelines for so many children and families in Alameda County,” said Kristin Spanos, CEO, First 5 Alameda County. “Yet, they often go unrecognized and undercompensated for their labor and ability to give individualized, culturally connected care. At First 5, we support the conditions that allow families to thrive, and getting this money into the hands of these caregivers and families at a time of heightened financial stress for parents is part of that commitment.”

Published

5 days ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

Costco. Courtesy image.

Family, Friend, and Neighbor Caregivers Can Now Opt Into $4,000 Grants to Help Bolster Economic Stability and Strengthen Early Learning Experiences

By Post Staff

Today, First 5 Alameda County announced the distribution of $4,000 relief grants to more than 2,000 Family, Friend, and Neighbor (FFN) caregivers, totaling over $8 million in the first round of funding. Over the full course of the funding initiative, First 5 Alameda County anticipates supporting over 3,000 FFN caregivers, who collectively care for an estimated 5,200 children across Alameda County. These grants are only a portion of the estimated $190 million being invested into expanding our early childcare system through direct caregiver relief to upcoming facilities, shelter, and long-term sustainability investments for providers fromMeasure C in its first year. This investment builds on the early rollout of Measure C and reflects a comprehensive, system-wide strategy to strengthen Alameda County’s early childhood ecosystem so families can rely on sustainable, accessible care,

These important caregivers provide child care in Alameda County to their relatives, friends, and neighbors. While public benefits continue to decrease for families, and inflation and the cost of living continue to rise, these grants provide direct economic support for FFN caregivers, whose wages have historically been very low or nonexistent, and very few of whom receive benefits. As families continue to face growing financial pressures, especially during the winter and holiday season, these grants will help these caregivers with living expenses such as rent, utilities, supplies, and food.

The funding for these relief grants comes from Measure C, a local voter-approved sales tax in Alameda County that invests in young children, their families, communities, providers, and caregivers. Within the first year of First 5’s 5-Year Plan for Measure C, in addition to the relief grants to informal FFN caregivers, other significant investments will benefit licensed child care providers. These investments include over $40 million in Early Care and Education (ECE) Emergency Grants, which have already flowed to nearly 800 center-based and family child care providers. As part of First 5’s 5-Year Plan, preparations are also underway to distribute facilities grants early next year for child care providers who need to make urgent repairs or improvements, and to launch the Emergency Revolving Fund in Spring 2026 to support licensed child care providers in Alameda County who are at risk of closure.

The FFN Relief Grants recognize and support the essential work that an estimated 3,000 FFN caregivers provide to 5,200 children in Alameda County. There is still an opportunity to receive funds for FFN caregivers who have not yet received them.

In partnership with First 5 Alameda County, Child Care Payment Agencies play a critical role in identifying eligible caregivers and leading coordinated outreach efforts to ensure FFN caregivers are informed of and able to access these relief funds.FFN caregivers are eligible for the grant if they receive a child care payment from an Alameda County Child Care Payment Agency, 4Cs of Alameda County, BANANAS, Hively, and Davis Street, and are currently caring for a child 12 years old or younger in Alameda County. Additionally, FFN caregivers who provided care for a child 12 years or younger at any time since April 1, 2025, but are no longer doing so, are also eligible for the funds. Eligible caregivers are being contacted by their Child Care Payment Agency on a rolling basis, beginning with those who provided care between April and July 2025.

“This money is coming to me at a critical time of heightened economic strain,” said Jill Morton, a caregiver in Oakland, California. “Since I am a non-licensed childcare provider, I didn’t think I was eligible for this financial support. I was relieved that this money can help pay my rent, purchase learning materials for the children as well as enhance childcare, buy groceries and take care of grandchildren.”

Eligible FFN caregivers who provided care at any time between April 1, 2025 and July 31, 2025, who haven’t yet opted into the process, are encouraged to check their mail and email for an eligibility letter. Those who have cared for a child after this period should expect to receive communications from their child care payment agency in the coming months. FFN caregivers with questions may also contact the agency they work with to receive child care payments, or the First 5 Alameda help desk, Monday through Friday, from 9 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. PST, at 510-227-6964. The help desk will be closed 12/25/25 – 1/1/26. Additional grant payments will be made on a rolling basis as opt-ins are received by the four child care payment agencies in Alameda County.

Beginning in the second year of Measure C implementation, FFN caregivers who care for a child from birth to age five and receive an Alameda County subsidized voucher will get an additional $500 per month. This amounts to an annual increase of about $6,000 per child receiving a subsidy. Together with more Measure C funding expected to flow back into the community as part of First 5’s 5-Year Plan, investments will continue to become available in the coming year for addressing the needs of childcare providers in Alameda County.

About First 5 Alameda County

First 5 Alameda County builds the local childhood systems and supports needed to ensure our county’s youngest children are safe, healthy, and ready to succeed in school and life.

Our Mission

In partnership with the community, we support a county-wide continuous prevention and early intervention system that promotes optimal health and development, narrows disparities, and improves the lives of children from birth to age five and their families.

Our Vision

Every child in Alameda County will have optimal health, development, and well-being to reach their greatest potential.

Learn more at www.first5alameda.org.