Berkeley

Trade War Cost $7.8 Billion, New Paper Finds

Published

6 years ago

March 15, 2019

The 2018 trade war cost the American economy $7.8 billion dollars in lost gross domestic product, according to a new paper authored by a team of economists at UC Berkeley, Columbia University, Yale University and UCLA.

The paper, “The Return to Protectionism,” makes that case that President Donald Trump’s trade war with countries like China actually hurt the overall American economy, even as the Trump administration claimed to be protecting jobs, technology and intellectual property.

The tariffs on imported products were passed almost entirely to consumers and businesses, amounting to what Patrick Kennedy, a doctoral student at Berkeley who co-authored the paper, calls “essentially a sales tax paid by U.S. purchasers.”

Kennedy and his co-authors studied monthly data sets of tariff rates released by the U.S. International Trade Commission and tracked, almost in real time, how the changes in those tariffs in 2018 affected the prices of more than 12,000 products from over 200 countries.

“This is the first time in at least a generation that we’ve had a chance to empirically examine what happens to an economy as big as the United States when there is a large-scale trade war,” Kennedy says.

The researchers found that protective tariffs helped American producers, such as Rust Belt steel companies, gain $23 billion in new revenue.

But higher costs to consumers and retaliatory tariffs on export-dependent industries, like Midwestern soybean farmers, amounted to a net economy-wide loss of $7.8 billion.

Kennedy and his co-authors also found that the beneficiaries of tariffs on U.S. imports, like steel workers, are more likely to live in electorally competitive counties where 40 to 60 percent of voters identify as Republican. This suggests a possible political motivation for the trade war, Kennedy says.

However, their analysis found that the costs of the trade war are being borne disproportionately by heavily Republican counties, especially those in the Midwestern plains and Mountain West.

“Retaliations by U.S. trade partners offset the benefits of U.S. tariffs in virtually all counties, but especially in rural, agricultural counties,” Kennedy says. The study estimates that, had trade partners not retaliated against the United States, the aggregate loss to the American economy would be one-third the size of the actual impact.

As the trade war continues in 2018, Kennedy says he and his colleagues will continue to study the unfolding action of tariff changes and policy talks with China.

“For a long time, trade has been a very theoretical field,” he says. “Economics as a field is becoming increasingly empirical and data-driven. This project is very much in line with that movement.”

Contact Will Kane at willkane@berkeley.edu

Will Kane

Posts by Will Kane

Bay Area

Progressive Missionary Baptist Church of Berkeley Celebrates 90th Anniversary

Dr. Earl C. Stuckey, Sr., who has served as Progressive Missionary’s pastor since September 1977, said the church also delights in the fact that it has hosted only five pastors in its 90-year history, including Pastors James E. Moore, H. A. Green, F. Douglas Farrell, and Edward Stovall, who served for 37 years.

Published

4 days ago

May 16, 2025

Oakland Post

Progressive Missionary Baptist Poster. Dr. Earl C. Stuckey, Sr., Pastor of Progressive Missionary Baptist Church in Berkeley with his wife, Kay Frances Stuckey.

By Oakland Post Staff

The Progressive Missionary Baptist Church of Berkeley is celebrating its 90th church anniversary on Sunday, May 18 at 10 a.m. at 3301 King Street in Berkeley.

The celebration will feature Pastor Darnell Manuel of the Union Baptist Church in Vallejo as guest speaker, along with many other special presentations.

Those who wish to share in Progressive’s history can purchase a 100-page full-colored souvenir book for $25.

The church boasts a number of notable people who either regularly attended or became members of the church since its inception, including former Alameda County Supervisor Keith Carson, Oakland mayoral candidate Loren Taylor, and one of the organizers of the Gospel Music Workshop of America, Helen J. H. Stephens.

Pastor Stuckey often remarks how longevity flourishes at the church — it boasts 13 centenarians (people who have reached 100 years or more). Currently, it has one centenarian who is still surviving, Mrs. Dorothy Chambers, and 14 members who have reached 90 years or more.

Recently, on Feb.17, the pastor and his wife Kay Frances, celebrated their 73rd wedding anniversary.

Oakland Post

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Activism

Faces Around the Bay: Author Karen Lewis Took the ‘Detour to Straight Street’

“My life has been a roller-coaster with an unlimited ride wristband! I was raised in Berkeley during the time of Ron Dellums, the Black Panthers, and People’s Park. I was a Hippie kid, my Auntie cut off all our hair so we could wear the natural styles like her and Angela Davis.

Published

3 weeks ago

April 28, 2025

Oakland Post

Karen Lewis. Courtesy photo.

By Barbara Fluhrer

I met Karen Lewis on a park bench in Berkeley. She wrote her story on the spot.

I got married young, then ended up getting divorced, raising two boys into men. After my divorce, I had a stroke that left me blind and paralyzed. I was homeless, lost in a fog with blurred vision.

Jesus healed me! I now have two beautiful grandkids. At 61, this age and this stage, I am finally free indeed. Our Lord Jesus Christ saved my soul. I now know how to be still. I lay at his feet. I surrender and just rest. My life and every step on my path have already been ordered. So, I have learned in this life…it’s nice to be nice. No stressing, just blessings. Pray for the best and deal with the rest.

Nobody is perfect, so forgive quickly and love easily!”

Lewis’ book “Detour to Straight Street” is available on Amazon.

Oakland Post

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Activism

Golden State Warriors Program Is Inspiring Next Generation of Female Engineers

Breaking down barriers and biases that deter young girls from pursuing STEAM subjects is essential for creating a level playing field and ensuring equal opportunities for all. By challenging stereotypes and promoting a culture of inclusivity and diversity in STEAM fields, experts believe young girls can be empowered to pursue their interests and aspirations without limitations confidently. Encouraging mentorship, providing access to resources, and celebrating girls’ achievements in STEAM are all crucial steps in creating a supportive environment that fosters success.

Published

2 months ago

March 23, 2025

Oakland Post

Front Row: UC Berkeley Steel Bridge Team Back Row: Girls, Inc. Participants. Photo courtesy of the Golden State Warriors.

By Y’Anad Burrell

The Golden State Warriors and e-commerce giant Rakuten are joining forces to inspire the next generation of female engineers through Building STEAM Futures, part of The City Calls campaign.

Organizers say the initiative is founded on the idea that science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics (STEAM) are crucial fields for innovation and progress, and empowering young girls to pursue careers in these areas is more important than ever. Studies consistently show that girls are underrepresented in STEAM fields, resulting in a gender disparity that limits potential and hinders diversity.

On Saturday, March 8, International Women’s Day, the Warriors and Rakuten hosted 20 middle school girls from Girls Inc. of Alameda County at Chase Center’s Above the Rim for a hands-on bridge-building experience. The young girls from Girls, Inc. of Alameda County had an opportunity to design, build and test their own bridge prototypes and learn the fundamentals of bridge construction from the Engineering Alliance and the UC Berkeley Steel Bridge Team.

This STEAM experience for the girls followed the first session in January, where they took a behind-the-scenes tour of the Golden Gate Bridge, learning about its design and construction from industry experts. The City Calls campaign, tipped off with the unveiling the Warriors’ new bridge-themed City Edition jerseys and court design earlier this year.