Politics

FACT CHECK: Why Bush’s Growth Forecast is a Stretch

Published

11 years ago

June 17, 2015

Republican presidential candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush talks to members of the media after speaking to voters at the Derry Opera House, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in Derry, N.H. Bush is campaigning in the nation’s earliest presidential primary state. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)

JOSH BOAK, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush says there’s “not a reason in the world” why the U.S. economy can’t grow at 4 percent annually.

Actually, there are a bunch of reasons it probably can’t.

Many economists say the U.S. economy is ill equipped to grow consistently at even close to 4 percent. Current forecasts put growth averaging half that rate. Any president, Republican or Democrat, would have to overcome decades-long trends that are largely beyond the control of the Oval Office.

Those trends include the retirements of the vast generation of baby boomers — an exodus that limits the number of workers in the economy. Rising automation and low-wage competition overseas are among other factors. A result has been meager income growth, which has cut into the consumer spending that drives most economic growth.

“It would require substantial changes in fiscal and regulatory policy that I don’t believe any president could reasonably expect to enact in one term,” said Robert Stein, an economist at First Trust Advisors who was a Treasury Department official during George W. Bush’s presidency.

In his campaign announcement on Monday, Jeb Bush said “there is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4 percent a year. And that will be my goal as president – 4 percent growth, and the 19 million new jobs that come with it.”

The pledge originated from a plan by the George W. Bush Institute to achieve growth averaging 4 percent for a decade.

Conservative economists defend the target as aspirational, a pledge that would leave the economy better off even if the next president fell short.

“I’m less concerned about the number than the commitment to grow rapidly,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist who has advised Republican presidential candidates and now serves as president of the American Action Forum.

The historical odds of doubling growth from its current level are low.

Only four of the 16 presidential terms since World War II have experienced annual economic growth averaging more than 4 percent after inflation, according to research published last year by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson.

President Harry Truman reaped the peace dividend as U.S. manufacturers helped rebuild nations devastated by World War II. The Kennedy and Johnson administrations enjoyed a boom because of tax cuts. And President Bill Clinton benefited during his second term from low interest rates and what eventually became a tech-stock bubble.

There are two primary ways to grow an economy faster: add more workers or increase their efficiency so that each hour on the job generates more income. Neither factor looks spectacular enough to deliver 4 percent growth, particularly since the share of Americans working has drifted downward as the number of retirees has increased.

“The demographics right now are for slowing population growth,” said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank.

The economy has 157.5 million workers, including the unemployed on the hunt for a job, according to the Labor Department. Their ranks increased just 0.3 percent in 2014, the best year for hiring since the late 1990s. When economic growth averaged roughly 4 percent during Clinton’s second term, the growth rate for the number of workers joining the economy averaged 1.5 percent, nearly five times higher than the current level.

Because baby boomers are starting to retire, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate will remain low and hinder broader growth. The CBO in January estimated that growth would average just 2.1 percent annually from 2018 to 2025.

In theory, Bush as president could overcome that obstacle by welcoming substantially more immigrants in the United States. This would cause the growth rate of workers to rise much more quickly, said Michael Strain, deputy director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

But efficiency gains — what economists call productivity — would still be a challenge.

For the past seven years, productivity growth has averaged a poky 1.4 percent, according to the Labor Department. That’s nearly half its rate between 2000 and 2007. Economists say it’s generally difficult for government policymakers to unleash sudden bursts of productivity.

One easy form of boosting productivity would involve government spending in infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports and airports.

Josh Bivens, director of research at the liberal Economic Policy Institute, sees these investments as the “most reliable lever” to bolster productivity. Yet he notes that a 10-year, $2.5 trillion government infrastructure program would increase economic growth only 0.2 to 0.3 percent annually.

That increase would not be nearly enough to achieve consistent 4 percent growth after inflation.

And the Republican presidential candidates have been committed to finding ways to shrink government’s footprint instead of introducing new spending programs.

“There’s really no way,” Bivens said.

___

Associated Press writer Ken Thomas contributed to this report.

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Up Next

FACT CHECK: Why Bush’s Growth Forecast is a Stretch

Don't Miss

Bush Brothers Have a Complex Relationship, Marked by Fierce Rivalry, Wounded Feelings

Oakland Post

Click to comment

Activism

Oakland Post: Week of December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of – December 31, 2025 – January 6, 2026

Published

15 hours ago

January 2, 2026

Oakland Post

To enlarge your view of this issue, use the slider, magnifying glass icon or full page icon in the lower right corner of the browser window.

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Activism

2025 in Review: Seven Questions for Assemblymember Lori Wilson — Advocate for Equity, the Environment, and More

Her rise has also included several historic firsts: she is the only Black woman ever appointed to lead the influential Assembly Transportation Committee, and the first freshman legislator elected Chair of the California Legislative Black Caucus. She has also been a vocal advocate for vulnerable communities, becoming the first California legislator to publicly discuss being the parent of a transgender child — an act of visibility that has helped advanced representation at a time when political tensions related to social issues and culture have intensified.

Published

5 days ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

Assemblymember Lori D. Wilson (D-Suisun City). File photo.

By Edward Henderson, California Black Media

Assemblymember Lori D. Wilson (D-Suisun City) joined the California Legislature in 2022 after making history as Solano County’s first Black female mayor, bringing with her a track record of fiscal discipline, community investment, and inclusive leadership.

She represents the state’s 11th Assembly District, which spans Solano County and portions of Contra Costa and Sacramento Counties.

California Black Media spoke with Wilson about her successes and disappointments this year and her outlook for 2026.

What stands out as your most important achievement this year?

Getting SB 237 passed in the Assembly. I had the opportunity to co-lead a diverse workgroup of colleagues, spanning a wide range of ideological perspectives on environmental issues.

How did your leadership contribute to improving the lives of Black Californians this year?

The Black Caucus concentrated on the Road to Repair package and prioritized passing a crucial bill that remained incomplete during my time as chair, which establishes a process for identifying descendants of enslaved people for benefit eligibility.

What frustrated you the most this year?

The lack of progress made on getting Prop 4 funds allocated to socially disadvantaged farmers. This delay has real consequences. These farmers have been waiting for essential support that was promised. Watching the process stall, despite the clear need and clear intent of the voters, has been deeply frustrating and reinforces how much work remains to make our systems more responsive and equitable.

What inspired you the most this year?

The resilience of Californians persists despite the unprecedented attacks from the federal government. Watching people stay engaged, hopeful, and determined reminded me why this work matters and why we must continue to protect the rights of every community in our state.

What is one lesson you learned this year that will inform your decision-making next year?

As a legislator, I have the authority to demand answers to my questions — and accept nothing less. That clarity has strengthened my approach to oversight and accountability.

In one word, what is the biggest challenge Black Californians are facing currently?

Affordability and access to quality educational opportunities.

What is the goal you want to achieve most in 2026?

Advance my legislative agenda despite a complex budget environment. The needs across our communities are real, and even in a tight fiscal year, I’m committed to moving forward policies that strengthen safety, expand opportunity, and improve quality of life for the people I represent.

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Activism

2025 in Review: Seven Questions for Assemblymember Tina McKinnor, Champion of Reparations, Housing and Workers’ Rights

In 2025, McKinnor pushed forward legislation on renters’ protections, re-entry programs, reparations legislation, and efforts to support Inglewood Unified School District. She spoke with California Black Media about the past year and her work. Here are her responses.

Published

5 days ago

December 29, 2025

Oakland Post

Assemblymember Tina McKinnor (D-Inglewood). File photo.

By Joe W. Bowers Jr., California Black Media

Assemblymember Tina McKinnor (D-Inglewood) represents

California’s 61st Assembly District.

As a member of the California Legislative Black Caucus (CLBC),

McKinnor was elected in 2022. She chairs the Los Angeles County Legislative Delegation and leads the Assembly Public Employment and Retirement Committee. McKinnor also served as a civic engagement director, managed political campaigns, and worked as chief of staff for former Assemblymembers Steven Bradford and Autumn Burke.

Looking back on 2025, what do you see as your biggest win?

Assembly Bill (AB) 628. If rent is $3,000, people should at least have a stove and a refrigerator. It’s ridiculous that people were renting without basic appliances.

I’m also proud that I was able to secure $8.4 million in the state budget for people coming home from incarceration. That includes the Homecoming Project, the menopause program for incarcerated women, and the Justice Leaders Program.

How did your leadership help make life better for Black Californians this year?

After the Eaton Fire, I pushed to get the same kind of support for affected areas that wealthier regions get after disasters.

I also did a lot of work building political power— establishing the Black Legacy PAC and California for All of Us PAC so we could support Black candidates and educate voters. We also called voters to make sure they understood Prop 50.

People need to understand this: there are only 12 Black legislators in the Capitol. Folks act like we can just walk in and pass reparations, but that’s not how it works.

What frustrated you most this year?

The governor did not have the political will to sign these bills: AB 57 and AB 62. They both passed overwhelmingly in the Assembly and the Senate. We did the work. The only person who didn’t have the political will to sign them was the governor.

The public needs to ask the governor why he didn’t sign the bills. We can’t keep letting people off the hook. He has to answer.

I also introduced AB 51 — the bill to eliminate interest payments on Inglewood Unified School District’s long-standing state loan — held in the Appropriations Committee. That was frustrating,

What inspired you most in 2025?

The civil rights trip to Alabama was life changing. We visited the Legacy Museum and the National Memorial for Peace and Justice. We took members of the Black, Latino, Jewish, and API caucuses with us. It changed all of us.

People aren’t always against us — they just don’t know our history.

What’s one lesson from 2025 that will shape how you approach decisions next year?

The legislative trip to Norway taught me that collaboration matters. Government, labor, and industry sit down together there. They don’t make villains. Everybody doesn’t get everything they want, but they solve problems.

What’s the biggest challenge facing Black Californians in one word?

Inequity. It shows up in housing, wealth, stress – all these things.

What’s the number one goal you want to accomplish in 2026?

Bringing back AB 57 and AB 62, and securing money for the Inglewood Unified loan interest forgiveness.