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Voters expect Trump reelection, according to poll

WAVE NEWSPAPERS — Voters are predicting a reelection victory in 2020 for President Donald Trump, but less than a third would be happy about it, according to a national poll released Aug. 22. The latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll also reveals that Republicans favor a populist direction over traditional conservatism by nearly two to one, while Republican-leaning voters slightly favor a more traditional path, according to a USC statement.

Published

5 years ago

September 5, 2019

Oakland Post

By Wave Wire Services

LOS ANGELES — Voters are predicting a reelection victory in 2020 for President Donald Trump, but less than a third would be happy about it, according to a national poll released Aug. 22.

The latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll also reveals that Republicans favor a populist direction over traditional conservatism by nearly two to one, while Republican-leaning voters slightly favor a more traditional path, according to a USC statement.

Most Republicans are supportive of President Donald Trump’s influence on the party and the GOP’s move toward populism, and they are happily optimistic that he will win reelection in 2020, according to the latest poll.

And while the vast majority of Democrat-affiliated voters would be unhappy if he won a second term, eligible voters gave Trump a greater than 50% chance of winning in 2020.

When asked about their wishes for the future of the Republican Party, 44% of all Republican-affiliated voters — including leaners — said it should be more populist, stressing strong borders, protecting jobs from competition overseas and standing tough against crime and social disorder. One in four said the GOP should become more traditionally conservative by focusing on fiscal responsibility, defense and pro-business policies. Another 13% said the GOP should stay as it is and 16% said they don’t know.

“Trump owns the Republican Party,” said Robert Shrum, director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, which oversees the poll.

“That’s the bottom line of this. They like him, they like his direction. He’s got more trouble with people who might lean Republican but who might not be hardcore Republican.”

Added Jill Darling, the poll’s survey director: “One out of five Republicans and leaners would like to see President Trump have less influence on the party. These dissenters tend to be college educated, younger and only loosely affiliated with the party, but the majority voted for Trump in 2016 and he may be in trouble if they don’t come out to vote for him again.”

The poll shows GOP-affiliated voters with college degrees split between a preference for conservatism or populism (40% to 37%), compared to those without college degrees, who prefer populism by more than two-to-one (47% to 21%). Support for the populist path was higher among Republican affiliates in rural (48%) and suburban (46%) areas, versus 39% of city dwellers.

“I don’t know if populists are pushing Trump or if Trump is strengthening the populists,” said Mike Murphy, co-director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. “There is no question that the dominant force in the party is Trump-style populism.”

Republican-leaning voters were split, slightly favoring a more traditional conservatism, with 36% saying the party should be more traditionally conservative; another third (31%) prefer a more populist approach and 28% say they don’t know. Five percent of the GOP-leaning voters say the party should stay as it is.

Murphy said the poll brings a question into sharp focus: “Will suburban Republicans and college-educated white independents who are uneasy with Trump swallow the bitter pill of reelecting him, or the very bitter pill of voting for a very progressive Democrat if Joe Biden loses Iowa, New Hampshire and the nomination?”

When asked how they would feel if Trump were elected to a second term, 18% of all eligible voters say they would be completely happy and 42% say they would be completely unhappy. Seventy-six percent of Republicans and 37% of GOP leaners said they would be completely or mostly happy, compared with 15% of unaffiliated and other party voters and only 2% of affiliated Democrats.

An overwhelming 9 out of 10 affiliated Democrats said they would be completely or mostly unhappy if Trump wins again.

“This poll says buy Valium stock,” Murphy said. “One huge chunk of the country is going to be really unhappy if Trump wins and another huge chunk will be unhappy if the Democratic nominee wins. We are so polarized now that it’s, ‘I’m right and you’re evil.’”

All eligible voters were asked to rate on a scale of 0 to 100 how likely it was that Trump would win the 2020 election. On average, all voters rated their confidence in a second term for Trump at 54 out of 100.

Republicans rated their confidence in Trump’s reelection at 74 out of 100, compared to the average of 40 among Democrats, indicating a 60 percent likelihood that the Democrats believe that their yet-unchosen nominee will win.

“Having worked in the Democratic vineyards for years, I will tell you that Democrats are classically ‘the sky will fall’ people,” Shrum said. “They worry and worry and worry.”

The poll was conducted from July 12 to Aug. 11, with 5,390 eligible voters, including 2,074 who are affiliated with the Republican Party.

The voters are members of USC Dornsife’s Center for Economic and Social Research’s Understanding America Study probability-based internet panel.

The poll was conducted online in respondents’ choice of English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error is plus-minus 2 for all eligible voters and plus-minus 3 for Republican-affiliated voters.

This article originally apperaade Wave Newspapers.

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OP-ED: The Illusion of Allyship. White Women, Your Yard Signs Mean Nothing to Me

NNPA NEWSWIRE – “The blue bracelets are something White women are wearing so others can see that they didn’t vote for Trump,” says Liberal Lisa from Oklahoma on X. Chile, bye. These bracelets are hollow symbols, empty gestures that mean nothing to me. An accessory to claim distance from Trump’s legacy is superficial comfort, while the choice to not stand with us in the voting booth is far more profound.

Published

2 weeks ago

November 9, 2024

Oakland Post

Political yard signs can symbolize intentions and allegiance. But this year, they’ve also symbolized betrayal. During this general election, Black women were led to believe that more White women would stand with us. Exit polls, however, told a different story. Despite overwhelming displays of support, more White women still chose to vote for the convicted felon, reality TV star, and rapist. White women answered the call but left us hanging at the polls.

A Familiar Disappointment

I live in DeKalb County, Georgia, and the abundance of Harris-Walz yard signs could’ve fooled me. But I’ve seen this before, back when Stacey Abrams ran for governor. White women showed up, put up signs, attended rallies, knocked on doors, and phone-banked. Yet, when it came time to vote, they let us down—not once but twice. I’ve been here for over 15 years, and if there’s one thing I know, it’s that political signs are symbols without weight.

In every election, I’ve talked with White women. Most aren’t the primary earners in their families and vote along party lines, aligning with the preferences of their fathers and husbands. These conversations reveal a reluctance to break from tradition, even when their votes affect women and certainly when their votes impact the lives of people who look like me.

The Illusion of Solidarity—Symbols Are Not Enough

On social media, I’m seeing White women posting pictures of blue bracelets to “prove” they didn’t vote for Trump. “The blue bracelets are something White women are wearing so others can see that they didn’t vote for Trump,” says Liberal Lisa from Oklahoma on X. Chile, bye. These bracelets are hollow symbols, empty gestures that mean nothing to me. An accessory to claim distance from Trump’s legacy is superficial comfort, while the choice to not stand with us in the voting booth is far more profound.

I’ve seen Black Lives Matter signs and black squares posted on Instagram to “prove” support for Black people, but we now know that was a lie, too. Will those same people who claimed Black lives mattered now take down their Harris-Walz signs and show their true selves?

Navigating these truths is a daily struggle for me—professionally and socially. White women often misuse their privilege, supporting us only when it’s convenient. Seeing overqualified Black women sabotaged or abandoned by White women at critical moments is a constant emotional challenge. It’s exhausting to live with this reality, especially when solidarity seems like something they pick up and discard at will.

One clever campaign ad from Harris-Walz that spoke directly to White women. “Your Vote, Your Choice” emphasized that their vote was private—independent of their household situation. Another was from Olivia Howell Dreizen, the “Vote Without Fear” campaign, which empowered women to consider the greater impact of their choices. But it seems many still couldn’t choose the roadmap to freedom—even when it was handed to them.

A Call for Action Beyond Words

White women, I want to believe you care, but actions speak louder than yard signs, bracelets, or Instagram posts. Show up in our communities, advocate in your workplaces, and stand up to dismantle the structures that uphold white supremacy. Only through real action will we know where you stand.

If you choose not to act, we see you—and we know exactly where you stand. Good luck these next four years.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BlackPressUSA.com or the National Newspaper Publishers Association.

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Supernova Parenting Conference Empowers Over 100 Parents with Resources for Neurodivergence and Mental Health

The inaugural Supernova Parenting Conference was co-hosted by Natasha Nelson, known as Supernova Momma, and Yolanda Walker, founder of Parenting Decolonized. It brought together over 100 parents, caregivers, and educators dedicated to fostering understanding and support for neurodivergent children and mental health challenges. The conference provided invaluable resources, expert insights, and a collaborative space for […]

Published

2 weeks ago

November 7, 2024

BlackPressUSA.com

The event featured a variety of workshops, panel discussions, and keynote speeches from leading experts in neurodiversity and mental health. Attendees left with practical tools and strategies to enhance their parenting journeys, emphasizing the importance of understanding and supporting the unique needs of neurodivergent children.

“While the conference was a tremendous success, we believe that our work doesn’t end here,” said Natasha Nelson. “It’s crucial to continue providing ongoing support and resources for parents as they navigate this important journey. We want to ensure families can access the tools they need long after the conference.”

To extend the momentum generated at the conference, Natasha and Yolanda are excited to announce the launch of the Supernova Parenting Community. This membership-based initiative aims to offer a safe and supportive environment for parents and caregivers to continue their growth as conscious parents.

Membership is available for as little as $5 a month via Patreon, making it accessible for all families seeking support.

“We know that parenting can be a challenging journey, especially when navigating neurodivergence and mental health issues,” Yolanda Walker added. “Our goal is to build a community where parents feel seen, heard, and supported. We hope you’ll join us in this vital work.”

For more information about the Supernova Parenting Community and to sign up for membership, please visit supernovaparenting.org